I like the National League tonight +1.35. The difference in rest for the pitching staffs is huge. It begins with the starters where Ben Sheets is working on a full five days of rest as opposed to Cliff Lee who has just three. In all, the NL has three starters (Sheets, Dan Haren, Carlos Zambrano) who have at least four full days of rest while the AL has only Joe Saunders. Like Lee, Roy Halladay threw on Friday. Here's a look at how the starters look for tonight:
NL - Sheets 5 days rest / Zambrano 5 /Haren 4 / Cook 3
AL - Lee 3 days rest / Halladay 3 / Saunders 6
The deal with Saunders is his wife had their first baby on Saturday night and he basically stayed awake around the clock and couldn't start for the Angels on Sunday. Then a cross country flight with west to east time change that generally works against body clocks. New baby & fatigue definitely are ? marks about his effectiveness tonight.
AL Unrested - Duchscherer (98 pitches Sunday), Kazmir (104) have one day of rest while Santana (111) has two
NL Unrested - Lincecum (116), Webb (108), Dempster 118 all have just one day of rest while Volquez (114) has two.
AL has 6 closers on the roster but we know they have a distinct mentality of needing to be in with the game on the line in the 9th. These guys may begin entering in the 5th. The effectiveness of Frankie Rodriguez (102 pitches last week) & Joakim Soria off his worst week of the season (1 blown save and 2 losses last week) could be a concern here.
AL Available & Rested - Papelbon, Nathan, Sherill & Rivera
NL has 5 relievers on their roster and only Carlos Marmol who's been very shaky the past three weeks is of concern.
NL Available & Rested - Wood, Lidge, Wagner, Wilson
The starting lineups seem to give a huge edge in quick strike potency to the NL. Power from top to bottom and .300+ hitters galore finally give an "on paper" edge to the NL which has been scarce the last dozen years. The benches are very equal offensively in my estimation as there are legitimate power sources and solid hitters on each side.
In the end, I'll take the +1.35 with the NL's deeper and more rested starting staff and their superior starting lineup. I figure the NL relief corps is strong enough to handle the late innings and the fact that Manager Clint Hurdle is taking a very serious approach to winning this game helps too. Recommendation: National League
