Kent State was one of the more disappointing teams in the MAC last season taking giant steps back in SU and ATS wins in ’07. They hope to take giant steps forward this year, but I’m hesitant to forecast as much. To do so the team needs to focus on the passing attack on both sides of the football and I’m not convinced they have the pieces to improve.
The Flashes had no balance last year offensively, finishing with the worst rated pass offense in the conference after averaging just 172 yards per game through the air. Four different QBs played but dual threat Julian Edelman was the favored starter and has retained his job thus far despite connecting on just 51% of his passes and throwing more INTs than TDs last year. To be fair, Edelman dealt with injuries (including a partially torn knee ligament) through much of his campaign, but for his career he has 20 INTs and only 17 TDs. Expect him to be on a short leash though as the coaches really seem to like Sophomore Giorgio Morgan. The QB play negated the lone bright spot for this attacking unit as Eugene Jarvis led the MAC with nearly 140 ypg rushing. Jarvis’ 1669 yards was good enough for seventh nationally and earned him a spot on the preseason watch list for the Maxwell Award in 2008. The line brings back 70 career starts and will not only need to open holes for Jarvis but do a better job of keeping the QB, whoever it might be, upright after allowing 38 sacks last year.
The rush defense finished fifth overall but had the second best mark in ypc against in conference play. The front seven looks solid once again and despite the loss of a starting nose tackle I would expect the rush defense to be amongst the best in the MAC again. The LB corps was set for a potential boost with former Michigan transfer Cobrani Mixon set to step in, but this offseason incident may have cost him and the Flashes that opportunity. The effort against the run was negated however by a pass defense that allowed 66% completions, routinely picked apart. With every team in the conference returning at least one QB who started last year the secondary certainly has its work cut out to improve. They hope bringing back six players with starting experience will help but I’ll take a wait and see approach to those sentiments.
Examining the schedule I see two potential disaster areas for this team: The first comes in weeks five and six with a road tilt at Ball State followed up immediately with it’s biggest rivalry game against Akron. The second coming three weeks later with back to back road tilts against Miami and Bowling Green, both of whom beat the Flashes on their own turf last year. A 1-3 mark or worse in those four contests will likely keep this team from anything better than a .500 record. For some reason this team was thought of highly in the marketplace last year, installed as favorites at Akron and Ohio as well as being installed as large favorites against both Miami and Bowling Green at home and catching a surprisingly small number at Central Michigan. It led to a 2-9 ATS mark and any such respect this year will probably lead to similar ATS failure.
