We're about a week into the new NHL Hockey season and I'm very excited about this year. I'm back to blog over the course of the entire NHL Season. Several changes have occurred this offseason and below is my season preview article from the Sportsmemo Newsletter that was released last week. If anyone wants me to write about a specific topic just go ahead and post it in the Sportsmemo Posting forum or send me an email at main@sportsmemo.com and I'd be happy to address any questions and topics that you have about NHL Handicapping or just NHL Hockey in general. Now onto the new hockey season!
Schedule Difference
The NHL is going back to the schedule system used before the lockout. Each team will play the other four teams in their division six times (three home games and three road games) and play the other 10 teams in their conference four times (two home games and two road games). The remaining 18 games will be played against teams in the other conference. That ensures that each team will play every other team in the league at least one time during the regular season. Right after the lockout, each team played two additional games against the other four teams in their division (four home games, four road games). They still played four games against the 10 teams in the other two divisions in their conference (two home games and two road games). The remaining 10 games were played against 10 teams from the other conference (five at home against one division, five on the road against another division). Teams did not play the five teams in the third division of the other conference. Confusing? Well with the change in schedule, we can now take advantage of more Western Conference vs. Eastern Conference matchups as the West has dominated over the last three years. I’m also looking forward to this new schedule because I believe it will put added emphasis that for those crucial four-point games between each team’s division rival.
Don’t buy into the ESPN hype of certain teams!
Tampa Bay Under 90.5 Points via The Greek
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been one of the most talked about teams this offseason because of a slew of moves via free agency. Tampa also replaced Stanley Cup winning coach John Tortorella with ESPN analyst and former coach Barry Melrose. Melrose has been out of coaching since 1996. The Lightning signed Gary Roberts, Ryan Malone, Vaclav Prospal Radim Vrbata, and Brian Rolston on offense and acquired Matt Carle and Andre Meszaros on defense. Tampa also couldn’t resist tampering with their goaltending as Olaf Kolzig was signed to provide leadership for young goaltenders Mike Smith and Kari Ramo. The season point total is at 90.5 which would be a 19.5-point jump from last season after they finished dead last in the Eastern Conference with 71 points. The Lightning will be improved, but so will several other Eastern Conference teams. Play it Under 90.5.
Keep your core intact
Teams that keep the same traditional core of players get off to better starts rather than teams that make wholesale changes. A couple of teams that had very tough starts to last season were the Buffalo Sabres and the Nashville Predators. Much of that had to do with the wholesale changes that were made to the team’s core of players. For Buffalo, the team lost co-Captains Chris Drury and Daniel Briere and came out very flat, losing eight out of its first 13 games. The same can be said about the Nashville Predators, who lost winger Paul Kariya, goaltender Tomas Vokoun, Peter Forsberg, Scott Hartnell and captain Kimmo Timonen in the offseason. Because of the changes, the Predators got off to a 2-6 start. Look for the teams that kept their core together over the offseason to get off to a better start rather than situations like Tampa Bay who went crazy and spent a lot of money in free agency. A couple of teams that could get off to a solid start this season are the Boston Bruins and the Calgary Flames. Boston returns seven out of its top nine forwards, the entire defensive core and both goaltenders. The Flames return 10 of their top 12 folders, most of their defense and all star goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff. Both of these teams should have significant value to start the NHL Season.
Injuries/Defections and Player Movements
The Pittsburgh Penguins have already been hit with the injury bug. They lost their top two defensemen before the season even started as Sergei Gonchar will be out for at least four months because of a shoulder injury, and Ryan Whitney until at least January because of a foot ailment. Those two players combined for over 100 points offensively and Pittsburgh will need young players like Kris Letang and Rob Scuderi to step up. Nashville was hit with a big surprise this offseason as 20-plus goal scorer Alexander Radulov defected to the KHL in Russia, signing a multiyear deal. The youngster was a top-six forward and the Predators will need Patric Hornqvist, who broke Peter Forsberg’s goal scoring record as a rookie in the Swedish Elite League, to step in and fill the void. It just doesn’t seem fair as the Stanley Cup Champion Detroit Red Wings signed the top free agent forward on the market in Marian Hossa. Hossa produced 29 goals and 37 assists in just 72 games last season and should immediately improve an already very potent Detroit attack.
Bold Prediction: The Edmonton Oilers will win the Northwest Division
I’m very high on the Oilers heading into the season. This was a very young team that suffered a lot of injuries but somehow managed to go 14-5-1 to end the season and miss the playoffs by only three points. “We probably had our best development year in 12 or 15 years,” president of hockey operations Kevin Lowe was quoted as saying. Tom Gilbert, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson, Denis Grebeshkov and Kyle Brodziak went from rookies and sophomores to impact players. Edmonton also added former 30-goal scorer Erik Cole and offensive-minded defensemen Lubomir Visnovsky during the offseason. You also have to take into account that veterans Shawn Horcoff, Sheldon Souray, Ethan Moreau and Fernando Pisani all missed at least 25 games. As far as the rest of the division goes, I believe most of the competition for the Northwest will come from Calgary with Minnesota, Vancouver and Colorado all taking steps back during the offseason. Look for the Oilers to surprise a lot of people and win the Northwest this season