We use the terminology ‘win-win’ when describing a trade so often that it’s become a cliché. A trade generally helps both teams, not neither.
Last summer, when the Packers finally ended the Brett Favre saga by trading him to the Jets for a third round draft choice, it was a clear ‘win-win’ situation for both teams. The Jets were in dire need of a quarterback and a sense of relevancy in New York following the Giants Super Bowl win. The Packers needed to give Aaron Rodgers his shot, and were able to get a first day draft choice for nothing, trading a guy that they thought was going to retire. Even though neither squad made the playoffs, the trade, on paper, was of great benefit to both teams.
This year’s offseason blockbuster that just sent Jay Cutler to the Bears can only be described by using the terminology ‘lose-lose’. Both teams are worse now than they were last week at this time.
Cutler was the third quarterback selected in the 2006 NFL draft, behind Vince Young and Matt Leinart; the #11 pick overall. In three years with Denver, the Broncos did not make the playoffs. Cutler had a chance to guide the team into the postseason as a rookie, but instead, he guided them to an overtime loss to San Francisco in Week 17 as a double digit favorite. Last year, he had another chance to guide the team into the postseason, but was at least partially responsible for Denver’s complete late season collapse, as they blew a three game lead over San Diego in the final three weeks of the season.
Cutler never won in college – his Vanderbilt team was unable to break their bowl drought during his four years as the starter. He’s never won in the NFL, and has been at least partially responsible for two late season collapses. While the scouts and the pundits love his arm strength, let’s not forget how much they gushed over David Carr’s arm strength or Joey Harrington’s can’t miss talent or Jeff George’s ability to throw the deep ball. Jay Cutler does not have those Philip Rivers or Drew Brees intangibles – the guy is not a natural born winner.
That being said, Cutler was a franchise quarterback in a league that doesn’t have many franchise QB’s just entering their prime. When we talk about potential franchise QB’s, here’s my list from the 32 NFL teams: Tom Brady and Peyton Manning; Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger; Rivers and Brees; Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb; Matt Hasselbeck and Tony Romo; Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. Of all those QB’s Cutler has one of the best ‘age to proven ability’ ratios.
In terms of absolute value, Cutler must be considered a Top 10 QB, regardless of my opinion that he’s not a winner. Franchise QB’s don’t come around every day. Denver needed this guy. They built around this guy. They most assuredly did not want to trade this guy, but felt backed into a corner with a new head coach acting like a bull in a china shop and a QB acting like an immature prima donna when confronted with the business realities of the league.
The Broncos made out like bandits in terms of what they were able to get from the Bears in this deal, but that does not negate the fact that after a decade of mediocrity searching for a face of the franchise to replace John Elway, Cutler was clearly their guy. For the immediate future – the next year or two, at least – Denver is far worse for having traded away Jay Cutler. And in a down economy, who knows what the real impact of this trade will be on ticket sales, merchandise sales and overall marketability of the franchise. No matter how you look at it, this is not a good trade for the Broncos.
Yes, Chicago needed a franchise quarterback. But frankly, Chicago needs a lot of things. Kyle Orton was not their problem last year. Orton was a winner in college and rallied the team to several improbable victories this past year; an overachieving season for the Bears. Quarterback was not the most pressing need for the Bears, by any stretch of the imagination.
Chicago has significant holes all over their roster. The Bears have major question marks on the offensive line that the free agent signing of an aging Orlando Pace is not going to be able to solve. Their receiving corps is as weak as any in the league. Defensively, the Bears are getting old, fast. They were vulnerable all year in ‘08, giving up 27+ on half a dozen occasions. Nobody on the team had more than six sacks or four interceptions.
Two #1 draft choices is an enormous price to pay for any individual player. When we add in a third round draft choice from this year’s draft as well, the price becomes extraordinarily steep, particularly for a team that has so many holes to fill on both sides of the football. Yes, the Bears finally have their first franchise QB since Jim McMahon led them to the Super Bowl 25 years ago, but the cost to acquire that QB will leave them with voids that will be very difficult to fill all over their roster, and no salary cap flexibility whatsoever.
The Bears, like the Broncos, will be worse off for having made this deal for at least the next year or two. This trade most assuredly does NOT put the Bears over the hump and make them a Super Bowl contender. On paper, with Jay Cutler behind center, Chicago cannot be considered any better than division rivals Minnesota and Green Bay. Both teams are worse off for having made the deal, a true ‘lose-lose’ situation.
