Constant and change are each key elements in the process of daily sports handicapping. However, the latter of those applications is at as high of a peak as I’ve ever seen it this early in the year when it comes to bullpens. Heading into only the seventh week of the 2009 season, the number of teams that currently have significant changes in their relief units has surpassed 50 percent. An inordinate amount of bullpen injuries and ineffectiveness across MLB is forcing teams to change on the fly and in a lot of cases, cross their fingers and hope for the best. With such a key component to a game outcome going through such an enormous amount of change, it’s important that handicappers and bettors are aware of every team’s relief status and formulate a game plan of how to approach each situation. Today, I’ll go through four teams who have either stripped their closer of his duties or are currently without their No. 1 due to injury. I’ll also give you my immediate projection on these bullpen situations.
Kansas City - With Joakim Soria on the disabled list, the Royals are without one of the AL’s elite ninth inning men. In his place, veteran right hander Juan Cruz, who is having a solid campaign, becomes the primary option. In his only opportunity last week, Cruz blew a save Sunday against Baltimore but the KC bats came back to get him a win. He’s only converted one of three chances this season despite racking up impressive overall numbers. Soria (strained rotator cuff) is eligible to come off the DL Friday, May 22 but despite his optimism, Manager Trey Hillman is saying that the team will be very cautious.
Projection - The Royals are not going to take any chances with their star closer at this point so I’d figure KC will have to get by without him until next week. His absence shuffles what was becoming a dependable 7th through 9th inning rotation that is now down to Robinson Tejeda, Jamey Wright and Cruz. Lefties Ron Mahay, Horacio Ramirez and righty Kyle Farnsworth are all hit-or-miss options. With starter Luke Hochevar throwing miserably, Gil Meche slumping (arm fatigue), and Brian Bannister a slight concern (shoulder stiffness in his last outing) I’m not sure this pen can successfully throw the amount of innings they’ll likely be asked to this week. Thank goodness for Zack Grienke who will give them a rest.
Texas - The Rangers thought that they were going to be able to bring closer Frank Francisco back on Sunday after resting him for a couple of days but his biceps tendinitis landed him on the DL last Saturday. The move was retroactive to May 8th and he can be activated this Friday for the opener of their interleague series versus Houston. Texas fared well without Francisco all of last week as their bullpen recorded three saves, three wins and a hold. The majority of that was due to southpaw C.J. Wilson, who stepped into the closer role he once held.
Projection - It’s very possible that the bullpen could face trouble in their series against offensive minded Detroit because outside of Francisco and Wilson, they’ve been lousy. The pen overall has MLB’s third worst strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.34), second lowest number of holds (9), an ERA of 5.19, and 43.9% of all inherited base runners have come around to score. Imagine if Francisco’s and Wilson’s numbers were taken out of the equation.
Seattle - Manager Don Wakamatsu saw enough after closer Brandon Morrow blew back-to-back save opportunities against Texas last Wednesday and Thursday. After coming off of the DL for biceps tendinitis back on May 9th, Morrow resumed his closers duties and in three appearances allowed 10 base runners and six earned runs covering just 1.2 innings. Morrow was yanked from his closer role and he did not pitch in the weekend series against Boston. His replacement, David Aardsma, stepped in and nailed down a save and a win. Opponents are hitting a mere .154 off him this season.
Projection - The struggles of Morrow and his complete absence from work against the Red Sox are not good signs for this bullpen, which has no legitimate set-up man and little to no consistently reliable middle relief. The team felt that Morrow was healthy upon his return and even his trip to the disabled list was thought to be more precautionary than anything. Perhaps the biceps tendinitis is more troublesome than anticipated or maybe Morrow was just lousy location wise (he was at 95 MPH against Texas). Either way, his struggles are a bad sign for a relief corps that aside from Aardsma is below average.
Houston - Did you ever think the phrase "Thank God for LaTroy Hawkins" would be used this season? Well, the Astros certainly feel that way as the long time journeyman has stepped in and magnificently plugged the hole left in the Astros closer position when Jose Valverde went down with a strained calf back on April 28th. Since that time, Hawkins has converted three of four save opportunities while allowing just 25% of the batters he’s faced to reach base. His 1.05 WHIP this month has been much needed because not only did the Astros lose Valverde until mid-June, they also lost set up man Doug Brocail and middle reliever Geoff Geary. Brocail won’t return until mid-June and Geary is on the DL with the dreaded biceps tendinitis that’s affecting the previously discussed pair of bullpens.
Projection - A couple of days off and at least six innings of work from their starters in six of their last eight games has given this bullpen some much needed rest the past 10 days. The results have been a bit better because of it and until they get their relief corps back and healthy, they’ll continue to need that type of help from Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt and Mike Hampton. The strong performance of Hawkins, solid bulk work done by right-hander Chris Sampson, and recent contributions from Alberto Arias (three holds in Houston’s last four wins, .167 batting average against, and 0.60 WHIP) are all well and good, but this isn’t a deep enough or strong enough unit to hold up against Milwaukee and Texas this week.
