This past weekend saw 29 of the 42 interleague games stay under the total -- that’s a hefty 69%. Even more eye opening was the fact that in 24 of the 29 unders, eight runs or less were scored. But the most amazing statistic provided by the interleague unders last weekend was;  of the 21 games played in American League stadiums where lineups use the DH, 17 or 81% stayed under the total. Of those 17, 13 stayed below the total by two runs or more making easy winners for those who played them.

Has there been a streakier team than the Detroit Tigers as far as totals are concerned? Just looking at the results of their last 23 games you find a current six-game under streak which was proceeded by five consecutive overs, a 7-0-1 run to the under and four straight overs. Incredible, runs of 6-0, 7-0-1, 5-0 and 4-0 all in the last three and a half weeks, which clearly shows how in-sync the Detroit offense and pitching have been. The zig-zag of results shows that when the pitching has been bad, the hitting has been terrific, leading to strings of overs. When the pitching has been stellar, the bats have gone silent. It’s very difficult to believe that these two units can sustain the way they are working in conjunction with each other and will likely have to take on an identity at some point in time. My feeling is that this team will become an under oriented team possibly to the tune of between 55% and 60%. The reasoning here is that the oddsmakers will continue to give some value toward the under because of the perception that Detroit is an offensive, run scoring type of team. That looks like it may be more myth than truth right now as a gander down the Tigers’ lineup shows a decline in the output of their table setters, a down year from cleanup hitter Magglio Ordonez and an abnormally high set of offensive numbers from third baseman Brandon Inge. In a proactive manner, I’m forecasting this offense to be perceived far better than it really is and subsequently less productive than their posted game totals would suggest. On the hand, I think their starting pitching will continue to be very good. During this 23-game span, the Tigers starters have accounted for an average of six innings per start, a WHIP of 1.27 and an ERA of 3.92. Justin Verlander looks to be every bit the ace he was back in 2006. Edwin Jackson seems to be hitting his maturation point and has looked filthy at times. Rookie Rick Porcello has been consistently good and Dontrelle Willis appears to be regaining confidence. The bullpen has its top two performers back in solid form as Joel Zumaya and closer Fernando Rodney have become trustworthy in the late innings once again. Finding another reliable middle relief arm should be tops on this teams agenda but I feel like they’re going to be a consistently viable under option as we move ahead into June.