Finally, grudgingly, the betting marketplace seems to be giving the Orlando Magic the respect that they have earned here in their impressive and dramatic run to the Finals. The Magic were bigger underdogs in their series against Cleveland, both in terms of the series price and in the actual game pointspreads. Stan Van Gundy’s squad was in the range of a nine point underdog in the first two games of their series against the Cavs; now only a six point underdog in Game 1 against the Lakers. And after starting the series as 4-to-1 underdogs against Cleveland, the Magic are only slightly more than 2-to-1 underdogs at the start of this series.
But before we give Orlando too much credit, let’s not forget that they are still significant underdogs to win the series and in my opinion, they deserve to be just that. When we break down the matchups, the Magic don’t seem to have the same type of edges they enjoyed against the Cavs; a team that was not able to get their role players to step up and produce when it mattered most.
The Lakers are bigger than the Magic in the low post. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol are younger, quicker and stronger than anyone the Cavs had to battle with Dwight Howard. Even though the Magic won both regular season meetings between these two teams, Howard was contained in both contests, held to twelve made baskets in the two games combined. If Howard gets into foul trouble, forcing extra playing time for Marcin Gortat or Tony Battie, the Lakers will have a significant edge in the paint.
Orlando’s biggest matchup edge against any team is with their perimeter shooters. Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis have proven to be extremely difficult to defend because of their ability to hit the three point shot combined with their ability to drive to the basket, creating opportunities for their teammates while getting to the free throw line. Lamar Odom and Luke Walton are likely to get ample playing time in this series. Their cumulative defensive acumen against the Magic’s forwards will be crucial for LA’s defensive success.
Courtney Lee, Mickael Pietrus, Anthony Johnson, JJ Redick and Rafer Alston have all stepped up at times this postseason, draining the life out of their opposition with stellar perimeter shooting. LA has the depth and athleticism to match up with the Magic behind the three point line. Trevor Ariza, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Derek Fisher and, of course, Kobe Bryant will be charged with the task of containing Orlando’s smaller perimeter sharpshooters. The Lakers did a tremendous job containing the Nuggets three point shooters, holding Denver under 30% from behind the arc in the Western Conference Finals. They’ll need a similar defensive mindset against the bevy of three point shots that Orlando is likely to attempt.
The Lakers did not play very well in the Finals last year. Boston was bigger, tougher and hungrier; nothing that Phil Jackson could coach around. This year, a wiser, hungrier Lakers squad is in better position to earn Jackson his 10th championship as an NBA head coach, although it won’t come easy – the Magic are quite capable of making LA earn this title, as opposed to coasting to it. Teddy’s prediction: Los Angeles in six.
