Carl Pavano, Cleveland Indians – Perception is a powerful handicapping tool if you can understand the instinct of major media and the public.  Pavano is a perfect example for the Indians this season.  First, everyone remembers his massively disappointing stay with the New York Yankees.  Of course, being involved with the Yankees makes everyone aware of your failures.  In addition, Pavano stumbled mightily in his first game of the season with all eyes watching once again.  In the Indians’ first series of the year, Pavano allowed a rude nine runs in just one inning of work.  This outing was going to keep his ERA sky high for the near future.  However, a funny thing happened as Pavano all of the sudden started to pitch as if it was 2004 when he produced a 3.00 ERA with the Florida Marlins.  Importantly, after his first couple of starts his velocity improved about 4-5 MPH.  Since May 1, the right-hander now has shown a 3.60 ERA with a sizzling 34-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  He’s faced a high caliber of competition as well, including the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.  Pitching with the Indians, the value has been there and should continue. 

Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs – Wells has certainly surprised this season, especially given his pedigree as a former catcher with good but not great Minor League numbers when he made the switch to the mound.  In following young minor league pitchers, it’s vital to follow their pitch selection.  In the case of Wells, he developed a two-seam sinker, which has quickly become a plus graded pitch.  The 26-year-old is showing a 1.68 groundball-to-fly ball ratio, which places him amongst the great groundballers in the game  With an assortment of pitches -- sinker, slider and change-up -- Wells now features three strong pitches that should allow for him to continue to make it through lineups multiple times.  He’s put up filthy numbers thus far with a 1.80 ERA and a 23-to-7 K-to-BB ratio.  He should continue to shine for the North Siders. 

Mike Hampton, Houston Astros – The Astros are truly a miserable organization -- it starts at the top with general manager ‘Easy’ Ed Wade -- as you should look to “bet against” in nearly every situation. Leading the charge to go against is veteran lefty Mike Hampton.  The always-injured southpaw has amazingly made every start this season, but looks to be wearing with each passing inning.  The 36-year-old recently took a pitch off his throwing hand and this could make it tricky for him moving forward.  Of course, if that doesn’t hold him back his surroundings and lack of stuff certainly will.  At this point in his career, Hampton doesn’t miss many bats, while a below average defense plays behind him.  Hampton also generally fights his control, as Minute Maid Park isn’t very forgiving.  Finally, a suspect bullpen is always on alert with Hampton racking up high pitch counts.  It can’t be an easier; the Astros and Hampton are dead “bet against” combination.