We cashed a winner with the Angels at Toronto Thursday, but tonight it could get ugly for the Halos. After getting swept at home by Boston and their big bats, look for the Tigers to trounce the Angels Friday night behind their Ace Justin Verlander. I expect much of the same over the weekend at Comerica Park, as Detroit has completely dominated the AL West teams this season, going 12-3 while hitting .312 and scoring 105 runs. Detroit’s starting pitchers lead the American League in ERA (3.99) and batting average against (BAA - .250) led by Verlander’s dominating season thus far. Verlander was named American League pitcher of the month on Thursday as he finished May going 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 56 strikeouts in six starts. The big right hander is on a 6-0 run his last seven starts while allowing just seven runs over 48 innings pitched. He leads the AL in strikeouts and the Tigers should be hungry and primed to punish the Angels and struggling starter Ervin Santana after the Angels trounced the Tigers pitchers in two meetings back in April while also hitting Verlander in his worst performance of the season.
Verlander has yet to allow more than one earned run in any home start this season while facing the quality lineups of Texas (2x), Cleveland and New York. Verlander, the Tigers former 1st round pick (no. 2 overall in 2004) tops AL pitchers with a 1.08 ERA at home this season. Santana has struggled since returning from injury and his velocity is definitely down. In his four starts this season, he sports an ERA of 9.50 with a WHIP of 2.22. Opposing batters are beating him at a .373 clip and he allowed eight earned runs to Seattle’s weak and undisciplined lineup last time out at home and was also hammered by the White Sox hitters in the start prior for seven runs in just one inning of work. Compounding the Angels problems is the AL’s worst bullpen (5.78 ERA / .297 BAA), which nearly blew another game at Toronto Thursday. LA Angels manager Mike Scioscia is feeling little ‘relief’ when he walks to the mound, and he’ll be doing plenty of that tonight as the Tigers look to take out their frustration and annihilate the Angels.
Looking ahead to Saturday, the first place Tigers should continue to tear apart the Angels and AL West teams when LA sends Kelvim Escobar to the mound. The Tigers will counter with Edwin Jackson, who has also been dominant over the past month (4-1 with 5 quality starts, 36 IP and just 6 earned runs). Escobar is on the comeback trail from right shoulder surgery and scheduled to come off the 60 day disabled list to make his season debut. Remember, Escobar has not pitched for the Angels since 2007 when he had his finest season in the big leagues (18-7). The long road to recovery continued this past week when he made his third rehab start Monday with Salt Lake (5 IP, 8 hits, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 87 pitches). Once Escobar starts for the Angels, he will become the 11th different starting pitcher for LA this season, the most they have used since the 2001 season. Of course, waiting behind Escobar and likely to throw plenty of pitches is the Angels tired and league worst bullpen.
Little letdown from manager Jim Leyland’s Tigers on Sunday, as they shoot for the series sweep before hitting the road for 10 straight games including six Interleague contests. Some rain showers (40%) are in the forecast Sunday in Detroit, and the Angels will turn to their former no. 1 pick and staff leader in wins this season (6) to stop the hemorrhaging. But LA left hander Joe Saunders has been battered in two of his last three starts and the Tigers should be playing with great momentum as a small favorite for 20-year old rookie right hander Rick Porcello, who earned AL Rookie of the Month in May while going 5-0. Porcello already has six wins this season (3.70 ERA) but faltered last time out against Boston. However, the 2007 1st round pick had three straight quality home starts prior to facing the Boston bats in which he allowed just two earned runs in 19 innings pitched. The big 6-5 right hander joins Justin Verlander as two top Tigers counted on to carry Detroit’s starting staff the remainder of the season.
Tigers tidbits: How dominant was Justin Verlander last month during his magnificent May? According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Verlander became the first MLB pitcher to go undefeated in a month of five-or-more decisions with as many as 56 strikeouts since Pedro Martinez did so for Boston in July of 2002. Jack Morris is the only other Tiger to post such dominating statistics over the course of a month, as he went 6-0 with 56 strikeouts in August of 1983. Verlander’s dominance at home is also of note, as he is second among all active American League pitchers (Roy Halladay – 33) with 28 wins at home since the start of the 2006 season.
Fairway Jay has been an ‘Ace’ in MLB since the start of May while also hitting the ‘green’ with great regularity on the PGA Tour, NBA and the ‘felt’ at the poker table. Fairway Jay produced over 16 units of profit for his clients and ‘Fairway Followers’ in May and he is now 8-1 in the NBA playoffs with his ‘Big Bertha’ 20* Big Drives following last night’s never in doubt ‘under’ the total winner in the LA Lakers - Orlando Magic NBA Finals game 1 contest. Fairway Jay is on a 5-0 tear on those top-rated 20* plays in all sports, and Friday night he ‘fires’ for more ‘green’ with his MLB Run Line Game of the Year. Be sure to check back for more ‘Fairway Forecasts’ as Jay posts regular blog entries with additional player previews, updates, notes, quotes, analysis and anecdotes.