I was a little ‘under the gun’ this past week in preparing for the Memorial golf tournament as I completed my profit-producing run in poker at the World Series of Poker (WSOP) in Las Vegas. I had some information that was part of our six-pack of selections for our PGA match-ups at the Memorial, but didn’t have everything completed in time Wednesday night to post and write. As it turns out, we’re on our way to a money-making and memorable weekend at the Memorial Tournament as the players fire for the flag at Muirfield Village and Jack’s tournament. Fairway’s Faithful Followers are shooting for three more winners this weekend and all have solid leads while Ernie Els has already cashed one of our Big Drive winners when Padraig Harrington missed the cut.
Both Ernie Els (-4) and Luke Donald (-4) are in contention and each player made our match-up card, and I personally have win bets at 40-1 on each player with over a two dime payoff if they can win the tournament. They will have to catch one of the co-leaders and our other match-up selection of Jim Furyk (-7), who we have over Kenny Perry this week as an underdog. Furyk’s wife is from Columbus and they are big Buckeye’s fans, so Furyk not only has a strong following and fan support, but he’s played well and won at Muirfield before. Donald opened with a 64 on Thursday and then struggled badly on Friday as the course dried out and the greens became lightning fast - nearly 14 on the Stimpmeter! Some additional swirling winds for the afternoon players Friday and Donald just did not drive the ball well on his second nine later in the day. Overall, scores soared and while the very fast greens and firm conditions made it tough to get the ball close and hold the greens, nearly every player commented on how awesome the greens were in condition and for putting. Tiger Woods said the greens at Muirfield Village are the best they play all year as far as condition, consistent speed and putting true.
I personally don’t place too many ‘win’ bets over the course of a PGA season. However, I’ve fired 7-8 bets the past month on some 30-1 or longer-shot bets with players that I projected to perform well and contend. A month ago at the Quail Hollow Championship I took a shot with Lucas Glover at 80-1 but he couldn’t close the deal while finishing runner-up in second place. More disappointing that week was that Glover was not available in the Don Best head-to-head match-ups, although there are often many players not listed in match-up betting that I would like to bet either on or against at specific tournaments.
That was the case last week as Tim Clark was not listed in match-up betting, and I discussed on the Sportsmemo Radio Show how I liked Clark and David Toms, but neither were widely available in match-up wagering. I took a shot with Ben Crane, David Toms and Tim Clark at Colonial in the win pools. All three were better than 30-1 to win and Clark let us down when he made bogey at 18 on the 72nd hole Sunday and then lost in a playoff to Steve Sticker, who we bet as an underdog winner over Kenny Perry in our match-ups. Perhaps this week we’ll be rewarded with a couple contenders at long odds.
Over the long term it’s very tough to have success and produce any profit betting golfers to win. Another long shot of 100-1 or better, Jonathan Byrd, is tied for the lead with Furyk while Mike Weir and Mark Wilson are just one shot behind as play begins in round 3 at The Memorial Tournament. None of those three players were available in our match-up rotation to bet head-to-head. However, all four of those golfers are very good putters, and the players that stay sharp with their approach shots, hit to the correct spots and putt well on the weekend will emerge with the victory. Still, it’s tough to predict winners, but there can still be some value in many mid range or longer shot players to win if you pay attention to their game, form and course. We’ve proven that much money can be made by betting head-to-head 72-hole player match-ups. After our worst start in six season’s betting PGA Tour match-ups, we’ve recovered nicely and have a good shot to get to 16-6 the past six weeks should our remaining selections pull through this weekend. As I read many reports and various ‘experts’ thoughts on players and past performances the past few weeks, it only reinforces my thoughts that many writers, bettors and ‘fantasy’ players just don’t understand the dynamics of situations, player performances and betting strategy. For example, we bet against Kenny Perry the past two weeks when most the media and other PGA prognosticators or writers noted how well he has performed in the recent past at Colonial and Muirfield.
Had they done their due diligence and really ‘listened’ or noted the ‘body language’ coming from Kenny Perry, perhaps they might have picked up this information after his sub-par performance at Colonial. When asked if his game was at the level he played at the Masters or if he was still experiencing any hangover, Perry commented, "No. I'm actually playing very poorly right now. I don't know quite what it is…I'm a feel player. I'm a very streaky player. I didn't play well at Colonial, one of the spots I usually play pretty well at. I've gotten a little glitch in my swing. I can't quite determine what it is right now. I'm hitting a lot of pulls. Their starting left of the flag and then they're hooking. My normal shot starts out right and comes to the flag. I don't know if it's a timing issue or a ball position, alignment. I'm not quite sure where I am right now." That hardly sounds like a player you would be willing to support if you were betting, and more likely a player you would like to ‘fade’ or bet against, which we did with a quality opponent that has had past success at Muirfield in Jim Furyk. If you can find Perry in a single day match-up this weekend, I would likely ‘fade’ him and bet against.
The player we really rode to the betting window this week in match-up play was Ernie Els, who has been getting ‘ripped’ by many media members and others about his overall play. But Els loves the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village, and he’s not only a past champion but a player I felt would bring his ‘A’ game this week. And he has. All you had to do was read Ernie’s weekly diary at his web site and then check out his recent play, motivation and recognize the match-up edges in comparing the course to past performance and current form to know you may have a nice edge this week with Ernie. Els has already won our Big Drive match-up over Harrington and has a six-stroke lead over Ian Poulter starting round 3.
I expect Els to have a strong weekend and also recommend him in single-day match-ups on Saturday, as I see him mostly listed as a –120 favorite over Stewart Cink. Those two tee-off together, and I like Els and would likely fire with him again Sunday pending his opponent in match-up wagering. Cink has rebounded well thus far at Muirfield after some season long struggles. Cink recently switched from his long belly putter to a shorter, conventional putter and noted he had to overhaul his entire putting system and also rebuild his confidence on the greens. He also mentioned the adjustment period and change while indicating he has practiced more on his putting the past three weeks than he had the entire last year.
Els has noted that he’s been working hard on his physical preparation and practice sessions recently and "got a new Callaway FT-9 driver in the bag, which I started using during the last couple of rounds of the BMW PGA Championship. It feels great and I feel really confident with the new driver and man, the ball is going a mile! At Queenwood on Sunday I had seven birdies and an eagle, which felt sweet. I only wish I could have played again on Monday. It was another beautiful day, but I had to catch the plane over to Ohio for this week’s Memorial Tournament. But hey, I certainly wasn’t feeling bad about that. This is one of my favorite tournaments of the year. I love Muirfield Village; to be honest, I have done ever since I first starting coming here some 15 years ago. Jack does an incredible job with the set-up and the conditioning of this golf course. In my opinion it is by far the best course on the PGA Tour. Seriously, if any greens keeper or committee wanted to know how to set-up a golf course, they should come to Muirfield Village for this tournament, because let me tell you this is the standard which every other golf course in the world should aim for. I won this tournament in 2004, which is still one of the highlights of my career, and I feel good about my chances every time I tee it up here. I’ve been working extremely hard on my golf game and everything feels really good. Although I’ve played some good stuff in recent months, it’s been a while since I properly contended over the weekend and I miss that feeling. I’m just looking for that little spark to get me going.
Now certainly we don’t always make the right ‘read’ and tap-in the ‘birdie’ putts, as we pegged Sean O’Hair for success this week and he withdrew from the Memorial Tournament following Thursday’s opening round 76 with a strained left forearm. O’Hair was on fire a week earlier at Colonial with opening rounds of 65 and 64 while hitting 35 of 36 greens in regulation. But he struggled over the weekend and perhaps he was suffering a bit heading into this week and we were uninformed. Something to watch as he prepares for the upcoming U.S. Open. Regardless, you can see there is more to the process than just sitting over the stats pages and past performance charts when looking for an edge or betting opportunity. The final Fairway fortune can be completed if Luke Donald can dial it in and deliver the victory or Ernie Els can make a move Saturday so he can position himself for a victory Sunday.
I’ll try to fire some additional thoughts on players and mid-rage or longer shot betting opportunities as the U.S. Open at Bethpage and British Open at Turnberry tee off over the next six weeks. Be sure to listen to the Sportsmemo Radio Show on Wednesday’s as I review the PGA Tournament that week or click on the archive link as Tim and I discuss some of those potential profit producers outside of just the notable players or listed performers in the head-to-head match-ups.
Until we tee it up again, keep firing for the flag and green and stay on course. .
