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Projecting Profit-Producing Rookie Pitchers

06.07.2009     08:43 AM     Fairway Jay     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Fairway Jay

We cashed a pair of underdog winners this past Tuesday when the Oakland A’s and Philadelphia Phillies sent a pair of pitchers to the mound to make their major league debut. In fact, the world champion Phillies were a +155 underdog after being bet down and we hit a ‘home run’ when Philadelphia jumped on Jake Peavy with four runs in the first inning at Petco Park while building an 8-0 lead for rookie left hander Antonio Bastardo. Earlier that evening, the Oakland A’s were at Chicago and Vin Mazzaro made his MLB debut and fired six shutout innings as the A’s ousted the White Sox 5-0.

Then following Friday’s ‘strikeout’ on the Detroit Tigers despite eight shutout innings by staff Ace Justin Verlander, we bounced back Saturday with a pair of underdog winners again, including another big road ‘Dog as Kansas City topped Toronto 6-2. The Tigers hurt us again on the run line, as once again the starting pitching did what we projected with Edwin Jackson holding the LA Angels to just one run while going the distance.  But the Detroit bats are brutal right now, as they could muster just two runs against a pitcher making his first start in two years following shoulder surgery (Escobar). And that followed Friday night’s pathetic performance at the plate (1 run) against struggling starter Ervin Santana. We’ll likely pass on those run line plays for some time, and continue to focus on value underdogs and some of the pitching prospects that may hold value a little longer.  One of those goes again today, as the Tigers send their 2007 first round pick and 20-year old rookie right hander Rick Porcello to the mound today.   Porcello already has six wins this season and was recently named AL Rookie of the Month for May.   Perhaps the Tigers bats will have more success today against a left hander, as the Angels counter with Joe Saunders.

The two pitching prospects we lined up with Saturday to cash the green were Luke Hochevar of the Royals and Matt Maloney of the Reds. Hochevar picked up his first win of the season and Fairway’s Followers who had the balls to bet the Royals cashed a very nice underdog winner (+150) as Kansas City snapped an 8-game losing streak. Hochevar, the former Tennessee Volunteers standout and no. 1 overall pick in 2006, was called up from Triple-A Omaha to make the start and had not won since July of 2008. Matt Maloney was solid in his MLB debut, going six innings with just two earned runs allowed with 4 K’s and 1 walk. The Reds built a 3-0 lead, but couldn’t hold it for Maloney before winning in extra innings.

While the minor league numbers don’t always translate to the major league level, there can be some real betting opportunities on some of these ‘young guns’ but you must also be ready to ‘fade’ a few and know there will be inconsistencies and tough times along the way. Many rookie pitchers come very highly touted like the LA Dodgers Clayton Kershaw last season. Same with former no. 1 overall pick Luke Hochevar of the Royals, but he’s coming along slowly. Yesterday, former Vanderbuilt standout and 2007 no. 1 overall pick David Price made his third start of the season and just the fourth of his big league career for Tampa Bay, and he helped the Rays beat the Yankees in New York by going nearly six innings and allowing just two hits and one earned run before the bullpen nearly blew it in a 9-7 Rays win. We took our lumps two weeks ago when we rode rookie starter Kris Medlen of Atlanta in his MLB debut and he lasted just three innings in a 9-0 Braves beating by the Rockies. He’s now working out of the bullpen, as the Braves start prized rookie Tommy Hanson in his much-anticipated major league debut today against the Brewers.

However, the two pitchers that we supported for nice underdog winners on Tuesday join the big league club with impressive minor league credentials, and I’ll fire another blog in the upcoming weeks about some of the credentials and numbers on these pitchers and other rookies of note. Both Bastardo and Mazzaro are back on the mound today for the Phillies and A’s, with Mazzaro a betting favorite in his home debut. You can see what left hander Antonio Bastardo brings to the mound tonight on ESPN, as Philadelphia completes a four game series at Los Angeles. Philadelphia will try to overcome back-to-back losses and blown saves by Brad Lidge and recover with their rookie pitcher against the Dodgers and their lefty Randy Wolf. A fifth straight Dodgers game ‘under’ the total is staring right at us with Bastardo worth a shot on the five-inning line at a nice plus price.

Here is a Fairway Free Play for Sunday that I provided to the Sportsmemo Newsletter and regular subscribers have already picked up this play earlier in the week and are enjoying Fairway’s ‘birdie binge’ on those complimentary newsletter best bet plays, now 16-3 since January. Today it’s a five-inning line bet on the Colorado Rockies and Ubaldo Jimenez. He’ll oppose St. Louis starter Joel Pineiro, who was named the Sunday starter after missing his last start due to lower back spasms. No doubt he’ll be on a pitch count and we’ll likely see the St. Louis bullpen by the middle innings if not sooner. And as this article link also mentions, the Cardinals will be placing Kyle Lohse on the disable list soon with a right flexor tendon strain. Lohse lasted just two innings in Wednesday’s start and will be out for an extended time.

Good luck as you fire for the green and project profits for the rookie pitchers.

Solid start under new Rockies manager Jim Tracy, as Colorado two of three from San Diego. Now they hit the road for 11 games and conclude a 3-game set at St. Louis Sunday. Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez pitched outstanding in May (2.38 ERA) until his final start of the month against the LA Dodgers; the only team all season to rough up the right hander. Jimenez looks like he has managed to harness his outstanding stuff and maintain some sort of control with a 34 to 9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in May. He’ll benefit from throwing in pitcher friendly Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have had to adjust their rotation with Kyle Lohse struggling with a forearm injury. Colorado’s bullpen has been a problem with an ERA over 5.40 and batting average against of .303 while the Cardinals relief pitchers have allowed a league low .211 batting average. We’ll take advantage of Jimenez and play the Rockies on the 5-inning line.




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Fairway Jay’s Handicapping Experience and Achievements: Jay Ginsbach, better known as Fairway Jay, has 20 years of experience getting bettors out of the ‘rough’ and into the ‘green.’ Relocating from Minneapolis, MN to Las Vegas , Fairway Jay started chipping away at the NFL where Fairway Jay has made his mark in the sports-betting industry. With a documented record of 158-113, 58% and 45 games above the .500 mark, Fairway Jay has established himself as one of the best NFL handicappers in the nation during the 2003-2005 seasons. Fairway Jay produced six-consecutive winning regular seasons from 2003 through 2008 and is clearly one of the nations premier professionals when predicting and forecasting football. Fairway Jay's unprecedented success in the PGA has produced tremendous profits and 'green' in his match-up wagering and has earned him recognition within the sports-gambling industry as one of the nation’s... Continue Reading.

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