Felipe Paulino, Houston Astros – Paulino looks to be on the verge of a breakout for the Astros. The oft-injured 25-year old is finally healthy this season and starting to produce solid numbers. Over the last few seasons, Paulino dealt with a wide assortment of ailments including a pinched nerve in his pitching arm, shoulder tendonitis and a little bursitis thrown in for good measure. However, when healthy his stuff is purely live. This is a guy who early in his career topped the 100-MPH barrier. With the arm injuries he’s lost a bit of velocity, but his high-90’s fastball, when spotted, is still sound. The right-hander owns an excellent curve as well and continues to develop a formidable change-up. The converted shortstop has pitched much better than his 6.18 ERA would suggest. He boasts a strong 37-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio and I firmly expect his .322 batting average against to fall rapidly in the coming months. One of the best ways to bet baseball in the marketplace is currently with the five-inning line. Paulino is a great candidate for that bet. We get him the first couple of times through the order, while subtracting the Astros’ bullpen. Paulino did slightly strain his groin in his last start, but he remains one to watch in 2009.
Braden Looper, Milwaukee Brewers – Looper seems to be pitching on borrowed time with an ERA that has jumped a run and a half over the last month. His batting average with balls in plays is a low .273, a number I expect to rise and fall in line with his mediocre ERA. The 34-year old simply doesn’t miss many bats and his limited repertoire does not equate to much success from a season-long standpoint. Looper’s 35-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 62 innings of work is hardly encouraging. In addition, Looper is generally weaker against left-handed bats. This is always key when looking over lineups before game time and making last minute profitable wagers. The clock is definitely ticking on Looper.
Brain Tallet, Toronto Blue Jays – Luck has certainly been on the side of the journeymen Tallet this season. The southpaw has served as nothing more than a stopgap throughout his career and a closer look a his numbers help us quickly peg him as an arm set for a decline. Tallet somehow leads all of baseball with an amazing .232 batting average against with balls in play. Unfortunately, this is generally not the statistic you want to lead the league in unless you’re an interesting situation with your contract year. Basically, the opposition has been hitting the ball right at his defense at an uncharacteristically high rate. With a lot of average arms, as the season progresses, these batted balls tend to find more holes and gaps. As a result, Tallet will find things much tougher in the months to come. In addition, with limited stuff for a starter, teams facing him for a second time and beyond should have plenty of success.
