Here are some of my thoughts, projections, player previews and ‘Fairway Forecasts’ for this year’s U.S. Open. I’ve added some additional U.S. Open notes and quotes in a ‘Fairway Feature’ article in the Las Vegas Sun by noted sports and gaming columnist Jeff Haney. We’ll do this in three parts with ‘Fairway Favorites’ and ‘Fairway Fades’ following my thoughts and preview of the golf course and U.S. Open championship. Bethpage Black is a par 70 and will play to a maximum length of 7,438 yards; the second longest golf course in U.S. Open history and nearly 225 yards longer than the 2002 U.S. Open at Bethpage. Big, boisterous crowds will be at Bethpage this week, and while the course won’t play to maximum length every round, Bethpage Black is a beast and will be a brutally difficult and demanding test, especially with rain in the forecast. Also know that regardless of the weather conditions and softness of the golf course, there will be no ‘lift, clean or place’ of the ball. If it’s not fair to play the ball as it lies, then the USGA will suspend play and continue another day until a champion is crowned.

The USGA wants to introduce more risk/reward and give the players more choices to play conservative or aggressive. The USGA setup at Bethpage will allow them to move tee markers up and introduce more challenging hole locations. In theory, the United States Golf Association (USGA) wants the U.S. Open to be the toughest test of golf the players will see all year, and that’s in every aspect whether it’s driving the ball, putting, approach shots or recovery around the greens. They want it to be a very tough but fair test, however I wouldn’t count on much fairness at Bethpage. The U.S. Open is a very particular type of test and the degree of difficulty is not over-hyped. If a player executes the proper shot, he may be rewarded. If he hits a mediocre or poor shot, he’ll be penalized and likely pay the price. The U.S. Open is the ultimate test of strength, survival and perseverance, and Bethpage Black provides the backdrop and battleground to break down some of the games best golfers and force them to execute and examine their shots and exhaust their energy.

There will be graduated rough at this years Open, as the penalty becomes more severe the further off line you hit the ball. That was not the case at the 2002 U.S. Open at Bethpage, as the rough wasn’t graded and it didn’t matter if you missed the fairway by 15 inches or 15 yards. However, the USGA still wants some inconsistencies in the rough. They want players to look down and figure out what’s going to happen with the lie and force both mental course management and a level of skill needed to hit the necessary shot from a variety of ‘rough’ conditions. Something not seen week-to-week on the PGA Tour is difficult bunkers or too many tough sand shots. The players will not want to be in the bunkers at Bethpage. They are large, difficult and deep. A real hazard. The USGA purposely softens up the sand so the players will get less spin out of it, although any rain will have an impact on the course condition. Still, Bethpage drains exceptionally well because it’s a sandy, loose soil. Firmness and wind are two key elements of the game that can really separate the great players from the good players, as those elements force players to think about what happens when your ball lands instead of just throwing darts towards the flags. Those two elements may not be as prevalent this week, but players will need necessary strength and length with the tough rough and rain.

Over 9000 golfers that were not exempt to play in the U.S. Open took their shot and went through qualifying to play at Bethpage. Only 72 players of the 156 in the field were exempt for this year’s U.S. Open. So over half the field went through qualifying to play their way into this prestigious event and our national championship. It’s a true ‘Open’ championship, but not the strongest field in golf as 15 amateurs also qualified. And the setup and length of Bethpage will really narrow the field of potential winners. Now add in a 40% chance of rain every day with 70 degree temperatures with heavier air and the short or moderate hitters will be at a real disadvantage, especially if they fail to keep the ball in the fairway. The greens will be softer and hold approach shots better, but still very fast as the USGA will try to run them up to 14 on the Stimpmeter every round. That may be difficult with a lot of rain, but the greens overall are less undulating and more level than most and should roll true with more putts being made. Successful players will still need to hit high and soft approach shots to position themselves for any birdie opportunities. Bethpage is very long and is an aerial game, as there is little opportunity to run or bounce the ball up to the greens. Many of the greens sit up and the putting surfaces are very well protected by bunkers and heavy rough, forcing golfers to fly the ball to the greens. There are several blind shots where the players cannot see the driving zone landing areas or the putting greens. I believe the best scoring day will be Sunday as the USGA tries to add more excitement to the final round and finish. Keep that in mind as you consider single-day player scoring.

Check back soon for Fairway’s Forecast and Player Previews at the U.S. Open.