Players’ approximate odds to win are in parenthesis. I’m not making any win bets this week, as I feel Tiger is going to be too tough and would rather focus on the head-to-head match-ups along with player finishing position and final winning score. I do believe Woods or the eventual champion will finish under par and ‘under’ the 277.5 projected winning score. Many players to consider and cover, but here are some Fairway Favorites and Forecasts.
Tiger Woods (2) – The best player on the planet looks primed to produce his fourth U.S. Open win and 15th major championship victory. Woods is the defending U.S. Open champion and he’s shooting for ‘Back to Back at Black’, as Tiger was the 2002 U.S. Open winner at Bethpage Black – a public state park municipal course. He led throughout that championship while becoming the only player to break par (-3) and winning by three strokes. No surprise if he’s standing on the 18th tee Sunday with a similar lead. He’s in top form and comes off a memorable win at the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago when he birdied the final two toughest holes to shoot 65 and break a 4-way tie down the stretch. Oh, and he hit every fairway in his final round, a prerequisite this week. He continues to get stronger and better, his practice rounds have been very productive and his knee is now an afterthought. This guy is beyond belief and by far the best in an era with more quality players . Long and strong is required to win this week, and Woods has it both physically and mentally. He’s the clear and only ‘Fairway Favorite’ this week, as the rest of the field is playing for second place.
Potential Contenders
Geoff Ogilvy (16) - If Woods were to walk off the course, then Ogilvy would be the most likely contender. Ogilvy became the first Aussie to win a major in 11 years when he captured the 2006 U.S. Open at Winged Foot. He finished top-10 at Torrey Pines on the long layout at last year’s U.S. Open, and Ogilvy is one of the PGA Tour’s premier putters and has not missed a cut in 2009 while winning 2-times this year. He shot a blistering third round 63 at Muirfield two weeks ago during the Memorial Tournament, and appears primed for a positive and productive week.
Jim Furyk (20) – I like Furyk, a lot. He won the 2003 U.S. Open at Olympia Fields and was runner up at the 2006 and 2007 U.S. Opens. He arrives at Bethpage off four-consecutive top-11 finishes including runner-up to Woods at the Memorial two weeks ago. Unfortunately, he’s not a ‘Fairway Favorite’ this week despite being a fierce competitor and possessing a game suited for the U.S. Open style and setup. But Bethpage is a different animal and a real beast from tee to green. This year’s U.S. Open Championship will play over 220 yards longer than it did in 2002 when the short-hitting Furyk missed the cut. Now add in likely rain this week and the golf course will play even longer with little to no roll in the fairways. Sure the greens will be softer and hold better, but the wear and tear of longer and demanding approach shots will force Furyk to be brilliant with his irons and near perfect with his putter. He’s less than stellar in his short approach shot stats, and he’s likely to miss more greens with the added length and find himself scrambling to stay in contention.
Ernie Els (45) – A 2-time U.S. Open champion and his recent play suggests he could contend. He’s paired the opening two days with Phil Mickelson and fellow South African and 2-time U.S. Open Champion Retief Goosen. He should be focused and ready playing with two major winners and outstanding putters. Els finished 8th at the Memorial two weeks ago and the golf course at Muirfield is set up like a U.S. Open type challenge despite wider fairways. Els hit many fairway’s that week and led the field in greens in regulation (GIR). He’s top-10 on the PGA Tour in total driving and top-5 in three approach shot categories which should position himself for potential success on the greens. Els finished top-25 at Bethpage in 2002 and he knows how to play patient and smart with his approach shots and make pars.
Steve Stricker (35) – Few players are as pure with the putter, and Stricker has been solid this season with a win at Colonial three weeks ago and six top-10 finishes. He finished 16th at Bethpage in 2002 and has the temperament to tackle a tough challenge. He’s no. 1 in scrambling on the PGA Tour and also first in par 4 performance. Stricker has six top-20 finishes in 13 U.S. Open starts, and he’s very solid on his short approach shots.
Robert Allenby (70) – Here’s a longshot I rather like. We projected success for Allenby last week at the TPC Southwind and the Aussie was very solid tee-to-green on the tighter layout as he finished in 4th place at the St. Jude Classic. Unfortunately, his putter let him down again and continues to be his Achilles heel. He finished 12th at Bethpage in 2002 despite a final round 77 and he remains in good and consistent form. Allenby is a very solid ball striker, excellent sand player and solid on his short approach shots. Perhaps most importantly for this week if he plays to form is that Allenby ranks 5th on the PGA Tour in total driving – a combination of driving distance and accuracy. Hard to believe this guy has not won on the PGA Tour since 2001, as he’s in the mix often. He’s had minor success at the Majors, but his solid finish here in 2002 combined with a pair of top 10’s at the British Open and 2004 U.S. Open shows he could contend.
Paul Casey (20) – The Englishman is more confident and capable of contending. He’s always been plagued by this frustrating inconsistency, but is now realizing his full potential. Casey captured his first PGA Tour win this year also has two victories on the European Tour. He is up to no. 3 in the world rankings and Casey has been one of the top players in golf this year. He is long off the tee to attack Bethpage Black, ranks top-20 in total driving and is a very solid ball striker. His longtime coach and motivator Peter Kostis says Casey’s game is well suited for Bethpage. He has finished top-20 in seven of his last 12 major championship starts and he’s having his breakout season on the PGA Tour.
Ian Poulter (60) – The colorful Englishman has become more competitive and greatly improved his game. He has several solid finishes in 2009 including runner-up at the PLAYERS Championship which requires precise ball-striking and top-5 at long and demanding Quail Hollow. Limited success in five U.S. Open appearances, but he did finish 12th at Winged Foot in the 2006 U.S. Open. He was runner-up at Royal Birkdale last year at the British Open championship and has shown he can handle the tough conditions, weather or course related. His tee ball has really improved and he’s pretty solid in total driving stats and an outstanding sand player and scrambler.
David Toms (50) – We cashed our top play Big Drive winner on Toms last week when he finished 2nd place in the St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind. A much tougher task here but Toms is tough, both mentally and with his golf game. He has six top-10 finishes this year and the former major champ is no. 1 on Tour in driving accuracy. That should really benefit him this week if he’s ‘on course’, and his length is decent with the driver. Toms is top-25 on Tour in GIR, ball striking and scrambling, and he’s quite solid in many proximity to the pin categories with his approach shots. He could challenge if he’s on his game, and worth some consideration in the right match-up and prices. Toms has a pair of top-5 finishes in 12 U.S. Open appearances, but did finish far back in 60th place at the long layout last year at Torrey Pines.
Camilo Villegas (45) – The rising Columbian star has been quite consistent this season following a banner, breakout year in 2008. He’s never really challenged the leaderboard this year, but he has three top-10 finishes and seven top-25’s. He’s top-20 on Tour in total driving and top-7 in both GIR and all-around ranking. He’s also no. 2 on Tour in ball striking, and if his irons are crisp he could contend. Consider that Camilo finished top-10 at last year’s U.S. Open and followed that up with a furious Fall finish that included six top-five finishes including victories at the BMW Championship and the TOUR Championship at East Lake to conclude the FedEx Challenge. Spiderman is a potential contender.
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