Here are some 'Fairway fades' and additional thoughts and notes at this year's U.S. Open. Odds to win are in parenthesis.
Phil Mickelson (15)– Not too often we’ll fade Phil, but his mental makeup combined with the media blitz and questions concerning his wife’s cancer condition should be too much to overcome. Mickelson turned 39 years old yesterday and is a 4-time runner-up at the U.S. Open, including at this course in 2002. Sure he has the short game and length to challenge the beast at Bethpage again, and Phil putted the Bethpage greens very well in 2002. But he was off his game in his return last week at TPC Southwind on a fairly tight golf course. Still, Mickelson says he is hitting the ball better than he has in a long time…and possibly ever. He’s optimistic about his ball striking this week, but I’m not convinced. Winning a major championship requires great focus and fortitude and is perhaps the most mentally challenging and demanding week of a golfers year or life. And the U.S. Open presents the toughest test of them all. Mickelson was never in contention at last year’s U.S. Open on one of his favorite courses at Torrey Pines. Different situation but consider that when Tiger Woods father died in May of 2006, Woods returned to competition the following month at the U.S. Open and missed the cut. Of course Woods simply won seven of his next eight tournaments that year, but obviously the toll and mental handicap were tough to overcome. Similar situation here IMO with Mickelson. If he were to somehow win, it would become more monumental than Tiger’s terrific triumph at Torrey Pines last year and one of the most memorable major victories of all time.
Padraig Harrington (40) – He’s been tinkering with his technique and golf swing and we simply cashed a pair of winners playing against him the last two weeks. Harrington enters the U.S. Open off a pair of missed cuts and has not broken 72 his last 13 rounds on the PGA Tour. The Irishman finished 8th at Bethpage in 2002, but faded on the final day with a 75 while playing with Tiger for the first time. He’s paired with Woods and Cabrera the opening two rounds this year, and imagine the mega media and fan following. The 2-time major winner last year has four top-10 finishes in 11 U.S. Open starts. Don’t count on him being close this week.
Brandt Snedeker (250) – We cashed one of our easiest match-up winners last week with a ‘Fairway Fade’ against Snedeker and he missed the cut badly in his return to competition following nearly two months off as he recovered from a cracked rib. Snedeker hit just eight greens in regulation in his opening round last week and failed to make a birdie in 36 holes played. He’s made just three cuts in 11 events this year and averages just 270 yards off the tee. I expect he’ll be buried at Bethpage early and fail to survive the weekend. The linemaker made a mistake by offering him in a match-up last week playing in his home state of Tennessee. We’ll take advantage again this week despite a rapidly rising line against the struggling Snedeker.
Anthony Kim (60) – Someone asked me about Anthony Kim so I thought I would include him here. Kim is a big underdog in one match-up against the young sharpshooter Rory McIlroy. He has no quality finishes since the Masters and his very poor driving accuracy should doom him at Bethpage. He’s a big hitter, but offers little else to support this week despite a pair of top-30 finishes at the past two U.S. Opens.
Other players of note
Sergio Garcia (40) – Still searching for his first major title and the stupid speaking Spaniard will continue to come up empty until he makes more putts and takes his foot out of his mouth. Okay, a little harsh but Garcia’s game has not been up to par this year and he has yet to finish in the top-10 in a PGA Tour event. Still, he holds the no. 4 spot in the world rankings and can’t deny that Garcia can be among the best drivers of the golf ball, but his total driving stats are way off this year. Not a likely contender and more success expected at the Open Championship next month at Turnberry. Still, a tough ‘fade’ and Garcia played in the final group with Tiger Woods at Bethpage in 2002, but finished 4th after a final round 74 and another frustrating finish.
Henrik Stenson (40) – He’s missed the cut at the past two U.S. Opens and was 26th in his third appearance in 2006. But Stenson is a power player and his performance and victory at the 2009 PLAYERS Championship proved he belongs. He’s now ranked 6th in the world golf rankings and his confidence has soared as his game has reached new heights the past 12 months. He has five top-5 finishes worldwide this year. Unfortunately, his most recent results and form are not a good fit entering the most rigorous test of the year.
Justin Leonard (90) – Competitor – sure. Major champion – yes. U.S. Open contender – no. Leonard has never finished in the top-10 in fourteen U.S. Open starts, although his best finish was at Bethpage in 2002. His lack of length will ultimately pose problems and his missed cut at the St. Jude Classic last week as defending champion causes some concern.
Vijay Singh (50) – The tireless and strong Fijan struggled early season following knee surgery but found his groove at the PLAYERS Championship with a top-10 finish. A pair of solid performances followed before a missed cut at the Memorial. Singh has not missed a cut in his last 14 U.S. Open appearances with seven top-10’s to his credit at our nations national championship. Still, he was 65th at Torrey Pines last year and in projecting his performance and studying the stats I envision some struggles with his tee ball, approach shots and scrambling. He’s past his prime and his putting always held him back from winning this event. He won’t suddenly emerge at brutal Bethpage.
Check back for more Fairway favorites, fades and forecasts along with additional notes, quotes and antidotes.
