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Fairway’s Final Shot at the WSOP
08/07/09  03:11 PM

Next year I’ll have to sign up for Twitter and provide Fairway’s fans, friends, family and followers an easier was to stay involved in the action. I’ve enjoyed the support and comments through all my sports analysis and poker play over the years, but the World Series of Poker (WSOP) definitely attracts more attention and media coverage and for good reason I suppose, as the WSOP is the longest running, largest, richest, and most prestigious gaming event in the world. I thought I would provide another glimpse of the action as I began Day 3 at the WSOP $10,000 Championship Main Event. There were some big hands, pots and exiting action in Day 3 and I was involved in one of the biggest upward moves and largest pots of the opening 4 hours of Day 3.

I began Day 3 with $28,300 chips and the average chip stack was approx. $90,000 with nearly 2000 players remaining from the original field of 6,494. I had much ground to make up if I wanted a cash prize, which started at over $21,000 for the top 648 finishers. The camera crews, ESPN and other media members were surrounding our table when I arrived, as they took an interest in LA Lakers guard Jordan Farmar, who was seated and competing at my table. I heard Farmar say this was his first live poker tournament ever, and here he was still playing on Day 3 of the WSOP Championship Event with a chip count of $75,000 – a good accomplishment thus far indeed. I introduced myself and mentioned I have watched and covered his college and pro career as a sports handicapper. I was soon to take him 1-on-1 at the poker table…!

I played very tight on Day 2 with little reward. Day 3 was ‘moving day’, and the chips and player positions were changing rapidly as players busted out quickly. The blinds started at $600/1200 with a 200 ante on Day 3, so if I didn’t play or win a hand the opening two orbits (18 hands), I would drop to near $20,000 or even lower in chips. I was not desperate yet, but I definitely decided I was going to loosen my play and get involved early if the situation presented itself. I did just that with larger than normal raises and picked up a few pots and then got involved in my first confrontation with Farmar in the opening hour. I was making bigger raises early in hopes of picking up blinds rather than get a call from another player with a sub-par holding. I picked up Ace-Jack (A-J) of clubs one from the cutoff and raised to $5,200. Farmar called on the button and we went heads up. The flop came 8-8-4 and Fairway fired and announced ‘all-in’. Here I was in the opening hour firing all-in after a flop with Ace-high! But my read was right on Farmar, and he folded. We would go 1-on-1 again later when I had more chips, and I called his small early raise in the big blind (BB) with pocket 2’s (2-2). I would have folded to nearly all others, but decided to fire against Farmar. The flop came Q-9-8 and I postured before checking. Farmar checked behind me. I fired out a 7,000 bet when a 6 hit the turn and Farmar folded to Fairway again and I took the pot with a pair of 2’s.

Shortly into tournament level 11 and hour 3 I got involved in a huge pot and you can see how the chips can change hands quickly. The blinds were now $800/1600 with a 200 ante. An early position player and Las Vegas pro raised to $4,800. One player called and I looked down at my hand – pocket Aces (A-A) – just the second time I was dealt pocket aces the entire tournament. I re-raised to $15,000 and still had approx. $27,000 behind me. The lowest stack player to my immediate left moved ‘all-in’ for $24,500. The dealers announce when a player is ‘all-in’ and the camera crews and other media members usually follow to the table. Many other media members were about to swarm our table as the action hit big. The other two players both called the all-in players re-raise, but his bet was not a big enough re-raise above my bet to re-open the betting to me. The supervisor confirmed such, so I was only able to call the bet for $9,500 more. I now had approx. $20,000 remaining and the two other players each had over $70,000 behind them. So we had over $100,000 in the pot and with media and WSOP personnel surrounding our table the flop came J-5-4. The other two players with chips both checked to me and I moved ‘all-in’. They both called! Now with over 160,000 in the pot, the turn card was a 3 and the river card was also a 3. We all showed our hands face up and I had A-A, the low-stack all-in player had 10-10, the initial raiser had Q-Q and the fourth player had 8-8. Fairway won the big pot and I had myself up to a very competitive chip count with an above average stack over $160,000.

I picked up a big hand and some good fortune at the right time. Unfortunately, I ran into a few big hands over the next few hours including when I raised UTG with 10-10 and a tight player next to me re-raised to 25,000 prior to dinner break and I folded. I tried to pick up the blinds from the button with modest Ace-holdings and was pushed ‘all-in’ on two occasions and folded. I missed a few other flops on hands I played with A-J suited, 7-7 and at dinner break I was down to $95,000 with 1071 players remaining and the average chip stack approx. $175,000. Once I had reached $160,000 earlier, I was hoping for one more push above $200,000 so I could really position myself for an after dinner run. With an above average chip stack at dinner I could have nearly secured a money spot with ultra tight play if I so elected. Instead I had fallen back down below an average stack but still plenty of chips to remain very patient.

After dinner I made a solid re-raise on the cutoff with K-Q and took down a pot, and then watched and waited for a few rounds with no action. However, the following hand is an example of what I have said many times about playing raised pots from the blind. It’s best to avoid getting caught playing raised pots from the blinds out of position. I not only misplayed a huge draw hand, but lost a big chunk of my chips in the big blind (BB); a real trouble spot for many players to lose chips and something I could have easily avoided. No question I could have made a big hand and won a huge pot as you’ll see, but the reality is that I didn’t need to play at this point and I was stuck after the flop. The blinds were $1,200/$2,400 with a $300 ante and an early position raise to $5,200. I was in the big blind (BB) for $2,400 and called and additional $2,800 with K-10 of hearts. I had approx. $90,000 remaining and the flop came Q-Q-J with two hearts…an open-ended royal flush draw for Fairway! I postured and checked and he bet out $6,500. I decided to check raise to $15,000. He called. The turn card was the King of diamonds. I now had top pair with an open-ended straight and royal flush draw! I felt that as long as my opponent was not holding a queen, I was probably best now as he did not re-raise me after the flop. His call told me he had at least a Jack, but after I bet out $20,000 he moved ‘all-in’ and had me covered for my remaining $55,000. What a mess I had made of this hand! Looking back, had I played more passive and just called his flop bet and checked the turn, he may have checked behind me and I could have seen the river card. If he bet the turn, he really could not have bet much more than my $20,000 bet, perhaps $30,000 as the turn put a potential straight on the board and a full house was a possibility. Maybe he would have moved all-in, and I would have still folded. But after I tanked and ultimately folded, I showed my K-10 and he showed the table A-Q. So he had trip Queens and a big kicker. I was doing the math and counting my ‘outs’ and ultimately determined that even if a call was warranted by pot odds, it wasn’t worth busting out of the tournament since I felt my chip count was still enough to play and get back into contention. I had made two or three mistakes already in one hand, and decided that was enough. Had a heart or nine hit the river I would have won a big pot, and I should have made damn sure I saw a river card after that flop. The math was as follows with each of our holdings. I was a 42% favorite pre-flop, 38.5% favorite after the flop and I had a 32% chance of winning the hand on the river. It would have cost my all my chips and 55,000 to make the call to see the river card, and there was approx. $134,000 in the pot. The pot size to my required call of $55,000 says the math was close to pot equity to make the call. Of course, had he made a full house before the river then I was drawing very slim to just the 9 of hearts or Ace of hearts for a straight flush or royal flush. But again, I made such a mess of this hand I decided another ‘error’ or mistake was not in order. On to the next tee and hand.

And it wasn’t long after when the blinds had passed two more times without playing a hand that I picked up Ace-King (A-K) under the gun (UTG) with $38,000 chips remaining. I had folded A-K pre flop each of the previous three times I had was dealt that hand on Day 2 and Day 3 (once). I knew that if a player re-raised I would push all-in and play this hand to the wire. You really don’t want a call from another player if I’m first to act, and I could not afford to be losing $8,000-12,000 in chips with my remaining stack. So I made a big move and announced ‘all-in’ and everyone folded to the player on the button who called. And so did the player in the small blind! Here we had a pot of $120,000 with three-way action. When the flop came K-5-4 I felt pretty good in hopes of staying alive as I made top pair of Kings with an Ace kicker. The small blind checked, but the button player bet $30,000. The small blind showed pocket queens (Q-Q) and folded, and our cards were shown face up on the table. Fairway’s misfortune became frustration as the other player had pocket Aces (A-A), and when I couldn’t catch one of the remaining two kings my WSOP Main Event run ended with under 970 players remaining.

I appreciate all the followers and support, and the disappointment of not making the cash pay outs was a bit frustrating as I also had a few interested investors and a few players I traded with that also played in the main event. Not all is lost from my financial end, as I have a small stake in a player still playing in the WSOP Main Event and he’s in the top 10 in chip count with less than 65 players remaining. He’s positioned himself to nearly guarantee a cash pay out of over $175,000 with a great shot at much more with the final table participants all winning over $1 million. So Fairway’s looking forward to following his friend and the final few days of action as they determine this years WSOP ‘November Nine’ and the players that will come back to the Rio in November and compete at the final table for the coveted WSOP Main Event gold bracelet and over $8.5 million first place prize money.  










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Fairway Jay’s Handicapping Experience and Achievements: Jay Ginsbach, better known as Fairway Jay, has 20 years of experience getting bettors out of the ‘rough’ and into the ‘green.’ Relocating from Minneapolis, MN to Las Vegas , Fairway Jay started chipping away at the NFL where Fairway Jay has made his mark in the sports-betting industry. With a documented record of 158-113, 58% and 45 games above the .500 mark, Fairway Jay has established himself as one of the best NFL handicappers in the nation during the 2003-2005 seasons. Fairway Jay produced six-consecutive winning regular seasons from 2003 through 2008 and is clearly one of the nations premier professionals when predicting and forecasting football. Fairway Jay's unprecedented success in the PGA has produced tremendous profits and 'green' in his match-up wagering and has earned him recognition within the sports-gambling industry as one of the nation’s... Continue Reading.

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