Oakland at Arizona -4.5 O/U 39 
Recommendation: Under

Arizona’s offense is a mess right now. The Cardinals are breaking in a new QB, Derek Anderson, behind a rebuilt offensive line. They’ve scored 24 points in two games. Anderson has been throwing into traffic, missing open receivers and not hitting guys in stride so they can make plays downfield. There’s clearly no chemistry between the quarterback and his receiving corps. Tim Hightower had an 80-yard TD run against Atlanta last Sunday, but the other dozen running back carries produced just 38 total yards.

Arizona needs to run the football and they spent the offseason working on their running game. After last week’s three turnover performance and with Beanie Wells expected to suit up for the first time all year, look for a steady diet of runs between the tackles from the Cardinals on Sunday. That’s exactly what Under bettors look for. It’s also worth noting that the high flying Kurt Warner led offense from last year was an Under machine at home, cashing six Unders in eight tries.

Oakland has a strong Under trend on the road, corresponding with the Cardinals run of Unders at home. The Raiders scored a grand total of 105 points in their eight road games last year, barely averaging 13 points per game. They’ve scored only 29 points through the first two weeks of this season, and made the change to weak-armed Bruce Gradkowski at QB this week, negating the tremendous big play speed from their receiving corps.

Darren McFadden carried the ball 30 times last week, as the Raiders chose to grind it out on the ground. This week, they’ll have RB Michael Bush healthy for the first time all year – we can expect another steady diet of smashmouth running plays here. Put it all together and this has all the makings of a grind it out slugfest, staying well Under the total.