Tennessee -1.5 at Miami O/U 43
Recommendation: Under
The Tennessee Titans travel to Miami and Sun Life Stadium Sunday to take on the near desperate Dolphins. Miami (4-4) is winless at home this season and the Titans have taken some early money as they are now the betting favorite (-1.5) and the total has been bet up to 43.
Miami’s passing game has not improved as once projected with the addition of wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Coach Tony Sparano has decided to replace quarterback Chad Henne with Chad Pennington who will start his first game this season; another sign of the
Dolphins' lack of identity and uneven play. The Dolphins rank 22nd in the league in yards per pass attempt and 27th in passer rating. Pennington has always been a dink-and-dunk quarterback and we’ll likely see plenty of running plays and short passes. Poor special teams play has also been a real problem for the Dolphins as has their home turf where they are 9-11 SU/6-14 ATS under Sparano.
Miami remains winless at home this season despite outgaining opponents by 45 yards per game – the team’s -4 turnover margin obviously a factor. Meanwhile, the Titans are being outgained by an average of 33 yards per game but have benefited greatly from turnovers (+11).
The Titans welcome wide receiver Randy Moss to the lineup this week but will still be without wide receiver Kenny Britt (hamstring). Quarterback Vince Young will likely play but is still not practicing as he nurses his sore ankle. Keep in mind that the Titans already rank in the lower-tier of the league with just 187 yards per game passing. The bye week should prove beneficial for the Titans, but expect a steady dose of running back Chris Johnson with Young running less and perhaps not as sharp in the passing game without full reps the past week and no practice time with Moss.
This seems to setup for plenty of running plays and a moving clock as both squads rely on their defenses. Miami’s defense has suffered injuries along the defensive line, but they’ve improved since the return of linebacker Channing Crowder a few weeks back and should come strong this week against a more one-dimensional offense.
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