Kansas City at New York Jets -10.5 O/U 36.5
The Chiefs ambushed the Bears last week in a 10-3 road win. But Chicago was without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte was injured in the first half. Kansas City only gained 252 yards on 3.6 yards per play. That was enough as KC’s average defense dominated a weakened Bears offense and held them to 181 yards and 3.3 yards per play. The Jets (7-5) remain in the playoff picture and I expect them to control the game up front with pressure and pound pathetic quarterback Tyler Palko with his noodle arm and poor decisions. The Chiefs offense has scored 10 or less points in their last five games, and their 7-1 ATS underdog log of late is in jeopardy as they will struggle to score vs. New York’s top-7 defense. Add in the Jets’ stronger special teams and this should be a big win for the home team if Mark Sanchez is even moderately successful in balancing the offense. The Jets have rushed for 138 and 101 the last two weeks. Recall that teams that rush for at least 150 yards are a 77% winning pointspread play, and teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a contest are 47-7-2 ATS the past six weeks. Expect the Jets to control the ball, chains and clock in a double-digit win.
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