Cal Poly -6.5 at Cal-Northridge O/U 130.5
Despite playing at a super slow pace, seven of Cal Poly's 12 Big West games have topped 130 points. One of the reasons behind that is the lack of quality defenses. Only two teams (Long Beach and Riverside) allow less than a point per possession in conference play. And despite its label of being defensive minded, Cal Poly has really been nothing more than average at stopping Big West opponents (102.1 ppp allowed, 5th out of 9 teams). The Big West is split into teams that play fast (Long Beach, Fullerton, Irvine, Northridge and Davis) and teams that prefer a slower tempo (Santa Barbara, Poly, Pacific and Riverside). Against the "faster" teams, Cal Poly's games produced scores of 105, 140, 116, 147, 154, 132, 144 and 151. It was contests against the "slower" teams that have kept CP’s pace number low and their defense appearing respectable (game scores: 115, 113, 112 and 106). Northridge plays up-tempo and sports the worst defense in the league. And with the exception of the 100-54 loss to Cal Poly back in late January, the Matadors somehow, someway always find a way to but 60+ points on the board. And at home, topping 130 points has been automatic for CSN with games scores of 163, 141, 157, 133, 149, 138, 164, 138, and 155. I certainly don't expect Cal Poly to net 100 again, but enough factors in our favor to see a score in the mid-130's or above.