Kansas State +9 at Missouri O/U 137.5
Recommendation: Kansas State
When Kansas State and Missouri met last month in Manhattan, the Wildcats were able to take away one of the Tigers’ biggest strengths by avoiding turnovers that would have inevitably lead to fast break buckets the other way. K-State was also able to dominate the glass, with a 36-22 rebounding edge. The result was a 75-59 KSU win as a one-point underdog; an easy “right side” cash for anyone who supported Frank Martin’s squad.
In the rematch tonight, the Wildcats are nine-point underdogs. Yes, Missouri is in revenge from that earlier defeat. And yes, Missouri is a perfect 16-0 in Columbia this year, cashing pointspread at a 70% clip on their home floor. That still doesn’t mean that the Tigers are likely to win this game by a double-digit margin. Let’s not forget that if the Tigers don’t force turnovers, their half court defense is spotty at best, in sharp contrast to K-State’s rock solid defensive approach.
Kansas State is a mentally and physically tough team. When they lose, they don’t lose by margin very often. Losses in Big XII play include a six-point defeat against Kansas, a two-point loss at Iowa State, a three-point loss to Oklahoma and a two-point loss to Baylor. On the highway, we’ve seen this team win at Baylor, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, while losing by only two at Iowa State; repeatedly hanging tough in hostile environments. Expect more of the same tonight.