SportsMemo.com
Login:
Click to Use Secure Login
All Available Packages
NOTICE: If you can not view the forum, you may need to log out of SportsMemo.com and log back in to recreate your forum session.
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Who has what it takes to win the 2012 National Championship Part II

03.05.2012     10:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 14 NCAA champions. From that profile, I was able to make a short list of potential champs in 2012, consisting of the following 14 teams: Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kentucky and Florida.

I’ll wager dollars to donuts that the 2012 champion is one of these teams. The next step, of course, is to eliminate teams one by one, slowly but surely working our way towards the eventual national champ.

The first step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home. The NCAA championship is not won on a team’s home floor. Even with a favorable location one weekend, a team is still going to have to win four ‘neutral site’ games in order to cut down the nets in New Orleans on the first Monday in April. And the best predictive evidence for future success in neutral or hostile environments is previous success is neutral or hostile environments.

In most years, we’ll find a sub .500 road record or two among the list of potential champs, an instant elimination. This year is no exception.

Florida opened up their road slate with a pair of truly tough games – at Ohio State and at Syracuse, both losses. Billy Donovan’s squad never quite got back on track on the highway, losing at Rutgers, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia and Vanderbilt. That’s a track record of failure. We’ll eliminate the Gators here.

Indiana isn’t a team that I was seriously considering for the title anyway, even though they fit the initial statistical profile discussed last week. The Hoosiers opened up the season with impressive road wins at Evansville and NC State, but they were not able to gain any season long momentum with those victories. Since that 2-0 start on the highway, we’ve seen Tom Crean’s squad lose at Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska and Iowa. Without a winning record on the highway, Indiana gets the boot here.

Like Indiana, Georgetown got off to a strong start on the road in non-conference play, winning tight games in outright fashion at Louisville and Alabama. But the Hoyas were not able to build on that early success. They collapsed down the stretch on the road in the Big East, losing at Pitt, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Marquette and West Virginia, while their only 2012 road wins came at bottom feeders DePaul, St John’s and Providence; arguably the three worst teams in the Big East. That’s not the type of road success that I’m looking for out of my potential champs.

Next, we move to defensive acumen, based on one of the more under-rated stats in all of college basketball – defensive field goal percentage allowed. Kentucky, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville and Kansas all rank in the Top 10 nationally in this key stat. North Carolina, Marquette and Ohio State all rank in the Top 50, while Baylor comes in at 60th.

Playing in March against opposing teams that handle the ball well, two defenses stand out as not being good enough in halfcourt sets to win a title. Duke ranks 192nd nationally in defensive field goal percentage allowed, with defensive weaknesses clearly evident in their blowout loss at home to North Carolina this past weekend. Missouri forces lots of turnovers, but their halfcourt defense has holes, ranked 224th in that same category. The Blue Devils and Tigers get the boot right here, right now. Voila, we’re already down to just nine serious contenders.

As we continue with the statistical profile of a champion, interior play is next on the list. The statistic that I like to use here is rebounding margin. North Carolina, Michigan State, Ohio State and Kentucky all rank in the Top 10 nationally in this key stat. Kansas and Baylor both rank in the Top 50 and Louisville is 78th.

But Syracuse ranks 163rd, outrebounding its foes by less than half a board per game for the full season – no strong low post presence behind Fab Melo. Marquette ranks 195th in rebounding margin – outboarded for the season and still feeling the impact of center Chris Otule’s season ending injury. That margin could improve with second leading rebounder Davante Gardner back on the floor following a five week injury absence, but I’ll still eliminate the Orange and the Eagles from contention here.

Teams with at least two NBA first round picks in their lineup tend to do well come tournament time. Last year, UConn only had one first rounder in the draft, but he was the guy who carried the team – point guard Kemba Walker. But we shouldn’t forget the impact of Jeremy Lamb, who decided to return to school following his freshman year, but is projected as a lottery pick in this year’s draft.

Three years ago North Carolina sent Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington into the first round, followed by Danny Green in the second round. Four years ago, we saw Kansas get three players drafted, including Brandon Rush in the lottery, Darrel Arthur later in the first round and Mario Chalmers at the beginning of the second round. The year before Florida had three lottery picks – Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Joakim Noah.

When we look at NBA caliber talent, Kentucky certainly stands out. Anthony Davis is the projected No. 1 overall pick. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones and Marquis Teague are all projected first rounders, if they come out. North Carolina stands out as well, with Tyler Zeller, Kendall Marshall, John Henson and Harrison Barnes could all go in the lottery!

Kansas has NBA picks Thomas Robinson, Jeff Withey and Tyshawn Taylor on the roster. Baylor has Perry Jones III, Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller. Ohio State has Jared Sullinger and William Buford.

Michigan State’s best player, forward Draymond Green, is not a projected first rounder. Louisville doesn’t have a projected NBA draft pick at all. I’ll bounce them from consideration here as a result, leaving us with only five remaining contenders.

Next, I’ll examine point guard play, using assist-to-turnover ratio as the key stat. North Carolina’s sophomore sensation Kendall Marshall has dished 9.6 assists per game this year (2nd nationally) while committing a modest 2.7 turnovers on average. Kansas has senior Tyshawn Taylor manning the point, with help from Elijah Johnson. That duo has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 8.7-5.3. Ohio State’s Aaron Craft dishes 4.5 assists with only 2.1 turnovers per game.

Baylor clearly has the weak link in this category. Their point guard is leading scorer Pierre Jackson; a JuCo transfer who has suffered turnover problems all year, especially during crunch time of tight games. Jackson’s assist-to-turnover ratio of 5.6-3.7 is clearly problematic. We’ll bounce the Bears here.

Kentucky is loaded with NBA talent, and they’ve been as good as any team in the country all year. But the play of true frosh point guard Marquis Teague is concerning, with a modest 4.7-2.8 assist-to-turnover ratio. I’m looking for a veteran hand at the point, not a mistake prone frosh with questionable distribution skills. John Calipari’s team might come awfully close, but I don’t expect them to cut down the nets in New Orleans

The final stat? Free throw shooting. Kansas connects from the charity stripe at a 69.4% clip. Ohio State hits their free throws at a 69.8% clip. But North Carolina is at 67.7%, ranked outside the top 200 best foul shooting teams in the country. A missed free throw (or two, or three) could easily be the difference maker for the Tar Heels if they fall short of a championship run.

That leaves me with two teams remaining. I’ll call for Ohio State to face Kansas for the national title; and a good case can be made for either squad to bring home the championship trophy. I’m going to make my case for the Jayhawks; the deeper of these two squads, more likely to be able to withstand any injury concerns. The Jayhawks have star power, depth, experience and talent. They rebound, play defense and win games consistently away from home. Bill Self’s squad meets all the criteria that has been effective at predicting past championship. Plain and simple, Kansas has what it takes to win it all.

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:

btbceo
03/05/2012 2:00 PM
Ohio st wont make the final 8





VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
The results don't lie. Teddy has been a consistent moneymaker in the NFL over the last three seasons, cashing at a 57% clip. He's at 63% so far this season, making $$ for himself and his clients! Teddy is ready to cash in on Thursday with the Rams - Niners winner! Don't miss out on another strong winner from this proven NFL performer! This play must cash or his next report is FREE!

$39
Drew Martin is in with his highest rated game of the entire month of September! This 20* Top Shelf selection is slated to kickoff Friday night in prime time! The Utah Utes take on the Arizona Wildcats in a key PAC12 south showdown. Drew is off a 2-0 sweep of the board last weekend in college football and looks to start off this weekend with a Top Shelf (2 Unit) Game Of The Month CASH $$$. Jump on board for only $39; guaranteed to win or Drew's top Saturday college football selection is on the house.

$29
No one does college football totals like Erin Rynning. The results are real: 58% dating back to 2012. For Friday, he checks in with a 10* selection. It's yours for only $29. It's guaranteed to cash or his next top rated play is on the house.

$29
Not a person on the planet can boast a better college football track record over the last three years than OTTO Sports with 67% winners and +40 units of profit. For Friday he comes in with a 10* selection that is WATCH and WIN! Lock in the best with OTTO for $29. It must win or Saturday's 20* play is free of charge.

$29
Ian Cameron has banked +17.7 units in College Football since the start of last season which includes a strong 13-6 68% +9.4 units so far this season in CFB. He is ready to deliver more profits unleashing a rock solid national TV winner with his 10* CFB Friday Watch & Win On ESPN2 backed by a perfect 8-0 ATS betting angle. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $29 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB play is free.

$39
Not a person on the planet can boast a better college football track record over the last three years than OTTO Sports with 66% winners and +40 units of profit. For Saturday, he checks in with his STRONGEST PAC-12 total of the 2017 season! It must win or Sunday's NFL 20* play is free of charge.

$39
No one does college football totals like Erin Rynning. The results are real: 58% dating back to 2012 including 62% with his top rated 20* Playermaker selections! For Saturday, he checks in with another big 2-unit total; his STRONGEST in the SEC for this month. It's yours for only $39. It's guaranteed to cash or his next top rated play is on the house.

$39
Teddy delivered the perfect sweep with his 20* Big Ticket Reports last weekend and he?s just getting started. Watch & Win on Saturday as North Carolina battles Duke on ESPNU; another 'right side' 20* Big Ticket cash just waiting for kickoff! Get it now, BEFORE the line move! This play must cash or his next report is FREE!

$39
Off last year's rock solid 59% and a profitable start to 2017 thanks to three straight 20* winners, Brent Crow is back and dialed in for Week 4. His TOP PLAY for Saturday comes on a favorite that is expected to dominate start to finish. Watch and CRUSH with Crow for $39. It's guaranteed to cash or Sunday's NFL 20* is on the house.

$39
Teddy delivered the perfect sweep with his 20* Big Ticket Reports last weekend, primed to do it again this week! Take advantage of this weak total in a game that has all the makings of a wild shootout from start to finish; worthy of Big Ticket status! Get this Touchdown-Fest now! Teddy's play must win or his next report is FREE!

$39
Erin Rynning DOMINATES the NFL, especially with the 20*s having hit 61% since 2012, good for +28 units of profit. For Sunday, he comes in with a 2-unit totals selections which you can pick it up for only $39. It's guaranteed to cash or his next top rated football play is free of charge.

$39
Dating back to 2012, Andrew Lange and his clients have absolutely CRUSHED the NFL with 61% winners. That's 5+ years, over 200 selections, and better than 60% winning action. He comes in with a top rated UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH for Sunday's action. DO NOT MISS OUT! Only $39 and guaranteed to cash or his next top rated football play is free.

$39
Doesn't matter is if it is college or pro, OTTO Sports knows how to hit the BIG plays with 60% winners with his 2-unit plays over the last three years including last week's NFL 20* winner. For Sunday, he checks in with a 20* Total of the Month. It's a guaranteed winner or his next top rated football play is free.

$39
Close out your Sunday STRONG with Brent Crow's top 20* selection on the Sunday Night Football game as Oakland heads East to take on Washington. It's Crow's top play for Week 3, yours for only $39, and guaranteed to cash or his next top rated selection is free of charge.

$35
Ian Cameron has banked +17.7 units in College Football since the start of last season which includes a strong 13-6 68% +9.4 units so far this season in CFB. He is ready to deliver more profits unleashing a rock solid national TV winner with his 15* CFB Saturday PAC-12 Watch & Win Main Event. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $35 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB play is free.

$35
Rob Veno's Top Tier plays have proven to be long term ticket cashing machines as evidenced by the +82.8 units added to bankrolls in all sports since 2013. For Saturday action he has zeroed in on a matchup that he's released as his 15* CFB Best Bet Totals Crusher. You can join him on this selection for just $35 and it must win or you will receive Rob's next report absolutely free.

$35
Rob Veno's Top Tier plays have proven to be long term ticket cashing machines as evidenced by the +82.8 units added to bankrolls in all sports since 2013. Friday Night he's zeroed in on a matchup that he's released as his 15* CFB Best Bet. You can join him on this selection for just $35 and it must win or you will receive Rob's next report absolutely free.

$39
Ian Cameron and his clients have dominated the National Football League with +24.5 units of profit in the NFL since 2015. Ian has been crushing the books with his top rated 20* NFL plays since the start of last season with a 15-6 71% record and +16.8 units winning record. He is ready to deliver another 2 unit NFL winner on Sunday with his 20* NFL Total Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NFL play is free.

$39
Ian Cameron has banked +17.7 units in College Football since the start of last season which includes a strong 13-6 68% +9.4 units so far this season in CFB. Ian is a perfect 3-0 with his top rated 20* plays in CFB this season part of a dominant 15-4 79% +21.2 units streak with his top rated 20* plays in CFB since the start of last season. He is ready to deliver another strong 2 unit winner on Saturday night with his 20* CFB Non-Conference Game Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB play is free.

$39
Rob Veno has carved a place for himself among the ELITE Best Bet handicappers in the country and his 20* Bluechips have been a major part of that success. Since July 2007 Rob has hit an outstanding long term 62.5% with these selections in CFB resulting in +78.2 units of profit. For Saturday Rob has released his 20* CFB Conference Total Of The Month and you can join him for just $39. This play must win or his next 20* report will be yours free of charge.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
09.16 15:53
09.16 14:34
09.16 11:11
09.16 11:01
09.16 10:57

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     09.21.2017 12:13 PM
Ted Sevransky     09.14.2017 1:01 PM
Ted Sevransky     09.05.2017 12:14 PM
Ted Sevransky     08.30.2017 9:27 AM
Ted Sevransky     08.24.2017 11:24 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 21, 2017 04:11 PM.