Villanova vs. South Florida -2.5 O/U 120
Recommendation: South Florida
Don’t be fooled by Villanova’s win over Rutgers, their season is going to end today. Prior to that victory, the Wildcats were on a 2-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS slide. South Florida (19-12, 12-6 Big East) dominated Villanova this season with their signature defense resulting in a pair of 65-51 and 74-57 wins. South Florida’s last eight games to close the Big East season saw them hold opponents to 50, 51, 45, 56, 47, 51, 48, and 51 points. The Bulls went 6-2 ATS in those games led by the league’s no. 1 scoring defense (57 ppg) and field goal defense (38%), and now face a ‘Nova offense that tied for last in the league in field goal shooting (40%). Villanova also takes plenty of long range shots, but USF holds Big East foes to just 28% shooting from the arch. Add in a rebounding advantage for the Bulls and this becomes a defensive dandy at a fair price playing on a team with rest against an opponent they have dominated this season.