Cincinnati (Arroyo) at Washington (Zimmermann) -140 O/U 7 
Recommendation: Washington

Washington’s momentum – taking two out of three in Chicago to open the season, then taking two out of three against the Mets prior to last night’s win over Cinci – is very real.  The Nationals are legitimate contenders; something they haven’t been at any point since the franchise left Montreal for Washington, DC.  The Nats refuse-to-lose attitude in early season play has been particularly impressive.  They’ve rallied from behind to win twice, and won twice (including yesterday’s affair) – on their final at-bat.

Cincinnati is on the other end of the positive momentum spectrum, dropping below .500 with yesterday’s defeat.  The Reds offense isn’t clicking at all right now, producing only eight runs in their last four games.  Starter Bronson Arroyo was lit up by the ice cold Marlins lineup in his debut last weekend (five runs and ten hits allowed).  Arroyo lost his only start against the Nationals last year and his only start against them in 2010, allowing 13 hits and 10 earned runs in just 11.1 innings of work in those contests. 

 Meanwhile, Nationals starter Jordan Zimmermann didn’t allow a run in his only previous outing against the Reds on this field (last August.)  Zimmermann looked dominant in his 2012 debut at Chicago last weekend – nice pop on his fastball, excellent location with his curve and his slider.  Stephen Strasburg gets all the hype on this Nationals pitching staff, but Zimmermann is the guy we’re more likely to make money with!