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MLB Betting Preview: New York's Kuroda faces Texas' Darvish

04.24.2012     01:21 PM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New York (Kuroda) at Texas (Darivsh) -140 O/U 10

Two of Japan's finest square off in Texas tonight with Hiroki Kuroda facing Yu Darvish. Kuroda has been been hit or miss with one great start against Los Angeles (8 IP, 0 ER) and two sup-par showings against Minnesota (4.1 IP, 6 ERs) and Tampa (5.2 IP, 4 ER). A few scouts question whether of not Kuroda can succeed long term coming from the NL to AL.

The book on Darvish is pretty thick considering he's made only three starts. From a raw statistical standpoint, the fact that he's walked 13 batters in 17.2 IP is a major concern. Baseball Analytics though makes the point that he may be getting squeezed by the umps.


Overall, AL starters have a called strike rate of 78% on pitches taken in the strike zone. Darvish, however, has a called strike rate of just under 67% in such situations. That's dead last among AL starters who have faced at least 40 batters:



Regardless of whether or not this is true, he'd better find a way to command his pitches because the Yankees typically don't chase pitches and are willing to take walks – and benefit from abnormally small strike zones. When Darvish does throw strikes, his stuff has plenty of movement and bite. Here is a complete breakdown of his repertoire.   


Tags: MLB New York Yankees Texas Rangers




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