SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
Sports Memo Ad 0
SATURDAY CFB LIVE CHAT
w/ the Sportsemo Cappers
Thoughts and Analysis
FREE HALFTIME PICKS
Not a forum member?
CLICK TO SIGN UP FOR FREE
Sports Memo Ad 0
WEEKLY FOOTBALL
Tuesday-Monday Coverage
College Football or NFL $99
CFB/NFL Combo $149
Great option for daily purchasers
CLICK HERE TO CASH IN
Sports Memo Ad 1
VIP FREE PLAY EMAIL
Enter email on front page
Free Play w/ analysis
See who's hot at Sportsmemo
Special unpublished offers
Register and account today!
Sports Memo Ad 2
20* Prepaid Pack
Handicapper of your choice
Next Five 20* selections
Discounted Rate of only $99
Purchase online
Sports Memo Ad 3
HOCKEY PACKAGES
SAMMY P and IAN CAMERON
Actions starts October 8
October Package $299
Full Season Package $999
CLICK HERE TO PURCHASE

HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSTOOLSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERSTWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

An early look at betting the NFL Divisional Playoffs

01.10.2011     11:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There are only eight bettable games remaining this NFL season – four divisional games this weekend, the two conference championship games next weekend, the pro bowl (generally a difficult handicap for this bettor), and, of course, the Super Bowl on February 8th. Half of those eight remaining games will take place this weekend. We’ll break down all four here.

As with any handicap, I like to look back before I try to project forward. All four divisional playoff games this weekend are rematches from regular season meetings. Two of the four games will be the third meeting between the teams this year. We’ve got plenty of fodder to work with when it comes to assessing how these teams matchup against one another.

But before we break down the games themselves, let’s take a brief look at the recent history of this round of the postseason. If we take a 20- or 30-year sample size, you’ll clearly see that the rested home favorites coming off the bye have enjoyed long term success against the pointspread – those teams didn’t earn their No. 1 or No. 2 seeds by accident in most cases.

However, if we look at a shorter sample size – say, the last five years – no such trend supporting the home favorites in the divisional round of the playoffs exists. Last year the top seeds – all home favorites – went a collective 3-1 ATS. In 2008, it was the opposite, with only one favorite (Pittsburgh over San Diego) managing to win at all, let alone covering the spread as chalk.

2007 saw a 2-2 split between the higher seeded home favorites and the lower seeded road underdogs. In ’06, home favorites took the collar, going 0-4 against the spread. And in ’05, it was another 2-2 split. When we add it up, we’re talking about an 8-12 (40%) pointspread mark for the home chalk over the last five years.

It’s surely worth noting that of the dozen underdogs to cover the spread in these games, ten of them won in straight up fashion! Just as we saw this past weekend in the Wild Card Round, savvy bettors who supported the Packers or Seahawks as underdogs cashed in with very attractive plus prices on the moneyline as well.

Ravens at Steelers (-3.5, 36.5) 
These two divisional rivals played a pair of tight games this year; both decided by exactly three points. The road team won both games SU and ATS. It was a similar story last year – both meetings decided by exactly a field goal, but in ’09, it was the home team that emerged victorious in both instances. In fact, seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams have been decided by less than a touchdown.

The lone exception to the ‘close final score’ trend between these two squads came in the 2008 AFC Championship Game; 23-14 Steelers win. However, if you remember the game, the SU result was very much in doubt late in the fourth quarter until a Troy Polamalu interception return touchdown with less than five minutes to play gave Pittsburgh its final margin of victory.

The first meeting between these two teams this year was a very bad situational spot for the Steelers. Pittsburgh went 3-0 using a variety of back-up quarterbacks to open the season. With a bye week (and Ben Roethlisberger’s return) on deck, Pittsburgh failed to execute with Charlie Batch behind center. They were outgained by well over 100 yards, but it took a TJ Houshmandzadeh touchdown catch with less than a minute to play for the Ravens to sneak out of town with a victory.

The rematch was just as tight. Neither team was able to run the ball effectively, and both offenses sputtered throughout. The game was decided late, with Polamalu again making the key play; a sack/fumble that set Pittsburgh up at the Ravens nine-yard line with less than four minutes to play. The ensuing touchdown gave the Steelers the SU and ATS victory.

Packers at Falcons (-2, 45.5) 
Part of Atlanta’s 6-0 SU start to the season at the Georgia Dome (4-2 ATS) was its win over the Packers on the weekend after Thanksgiving. Just as we’re seeing here, the betting markets considered Green Bay to be the superior team on a neutral field. Despite their perfect home record (at the time), and Matt Ryan’s well publicized 18-1 SU mark at home (at the time), the Falcons were only 2.5-point favorites in a game they won by a field goal.

The game was a back and forth affair. Trailing by a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers on a 90 yard drive, completing the game tying TD pass on fourth and ten with a minute to play. Matt Ryan completed 14 of his 15 pass attempts in the second half, including four short completions following a long kick return, setting up Matt Bryant for the game winning field goal in the final seconds.

But the key play of the game may well have been Aaron Rodgers fumble on a QB sneak from the one-yard line in the first half, giving the Falcons all kinds of positive momentum as they marched the ball down the field for a score following the game’s only turnover. Much like the Ravens-Steelers game discussed above, there wasn’t much separating these two teams.

Seahawks at Bears (-10, 40) 
When these two teams met back in mid-October, Chicago was a six-point favorite against a Seahawks team that had extra time to prepare; coming off their bye week. The Bears were 4-1 at the time, but the betting markets weren’t particularly enamored with Chicago just yet – bettors really didn’t start to respect Lovie Smith’s squad until their 7-1 stretch run in November and December. That being said, bettors weren’t in love with Seattle on the road either. The Seahawks’ home/road dichotomy was well publicized and factored heavily into the pointspread, just as it is for the rematch.

Following an early Matt Forte touchdown run for Chicago, Seattle took over the game with three long touchdown drives while holding the Bears to a pair of field goals. A late Devin Hester punt return touchdown made the 23-20 final score closer than the game actually was. Jay Cutler was stymied and confused by Seattle’s defense, completing only 17-of-39 passes, and his sack/safety in the end zone on the Bears’ first possession of the second half was a real momentum shifter.

Jets at Patriots (-9, 45) 
These two teams have played eight quarters of football this season, and the Pats dominated six of the eight. The most recent meeting was a complete blowout on Monday Night Football; a 45-3 Pats annihilation that was essentially over by the end of the first quarter. Tom Brady was brilliant (326 yards and four TDs) and led the Patriots on four consecutive scoring drives to open the game. Mark Sanchez, on the other hand, completed less than half of his pass attempts with no touchdowns and three interceptions.

The first meeting, back in Week 2 at the New Meadowlands was a tale of two halves. The Pats marched the ball up and down the field in the first half, taking a lead into the locker room, but Sanchez led the Jets on three extended scoring drives after the break, while making Tom Brady look human in the process. New York’s 28-14 win was no aberration – the Jets are one of only two teams in the NFL to have at least one SU win over the Pats in four of the last five seasons, splitting the season series in both years of the Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez era.

Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens Green Bay Packers Atlanta Falcons Ney York Jets New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks Chicago Bears Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
PowerNFLCFBMLBNBA
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$20
Ian Cameron is heating up in the NHL on a perfect 5-0 run and his NHL continues to be a solid source of profits for years banking +17.48 units of profit since 2012. He has isolated one single rock solid side in Saturday NHL action with his 10* NHL Top Side. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $20 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NHL Hockey report is free.

$39
It's been a great 2014 for Andrew Lange and his clients with 57% winners across all sports. Saturday's big 20* comes from the Big Ten with the Ohio State at Penn State showdown. Watch and win for just $39; guaranteed to cash or Lange's NFL 20* is on the house.

$39
Teddy is 19-7 73% with his Big Ticket Reports in college football since the start of 2013 campaign, including back-2-back winners over the past two weeks. Watch and Win with this national TV 20* Big Ticket this week; another right side cash just waiting to happen. Do Not Miss Teddy?s top college football release for the weekend! This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

$39
It's been a great start to the CFB season for Sammy P with 12 out of 20 winners for +6.675 units of profit. He adds to it on Saturday with a big two unit selection on the Alabama-Tennessee game. It must win or his top NFL play for Sunday is free of charge.

$39
Ian Cameron flat out WINS in College Football and has been delivering the goods with an awesome 89-75 record for 54% winning action banking +17.6 units of profit since the start of the 2013 season. He has crushed the big plays with an AWESOME 18-7 72% for +20.6 units with his College Football 20* releases since the start of last year. He is ready to deliver his strongest total in SEC action in October on Saturday with his 20* CFB SEC Total Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB report is free.

$39
The clock operator is expected to get quite a workout in this one as OTTO Sports' top play for Saturday comes in with an OVER the TOTAL 20*. This must cash or his top NFL play for Sunday is free.

$39
Brent Crow taps into the Big XII for Saturday's big 20* play on the West Virginia at Oklahoma State game on ESPN. Tune in and add two units to your bankroll for only $39. It's guaranteed to cash or Crow's 20* for Sunday NFL is free.

$30
ER is primed and ready for a watch and win opportunity on Saturday night. He's back in play under the lights with a 10* CFB Primetime clash between Alabama and Tennessee. Cash in for $30; guaranteed to win or his next football report is on the house.

$29
Sammy P hits the ice Saturday night with a huge 20* play in the NHL. This report is his 20* Play of the Day. Sammy looks to continue his top form in all sports! Pick it up for $29; a guaranteed winner or his next selection is on the house!

$39
ER owns a huge O/U Best Bet LONGTERM streak with a sizzling 47-21 69% mark. Sunday, ER has released his 20* NFL O/U Playmaker Game of the Month and he expects an easy winner. ER's 20* NFL O/U play is $39 and is guaranteed to win or his next football play is on the house.

$39
Teddy has delivered Over winners with his only NFL total picks in each of the last two weeks and he is primed to cash another easy right side Over winner this week. If you like wild, high scoring games, you will love this Big Ticket Shootout! This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

$39
Rob Veno has been an ABSOLUTE FORCE with his 20* BLUECHIP releases in 2014 posting a 57-30 65.5% mark stacking up +52.76 units of profit and for Sunday action, he's released his 20* NFL BLUECHIP Game Of The Month. Get on board with him for only $39; guaranteed to cash or his next selection is free.

$35
Rob Veno has posted a remarkable +98.6 units since the start of 2013 and he's well on his way to back-back huge profit making seasons. For Sunday action he's in with a 15* NFL Bluechip NFC Best Bet Total which has triple threat criteria as a strong fundamental, situational and key number play. Rob's Top Rated selection is just $35 and must win or you receive his next NFL report at no additional cost.

$39
Ian Cameron and his clients cashed in with his 20* NFL Football release last week and he is ready to deliver another very strong, top rated winner in NFL action on Sunday night in an NFC clash between the Packers and Saints live on NBC with his 20* NFL SNF Main Event. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NFL report is free.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
10.18 17:07
10.18 17:03
10.18 16:45
10.18 16:16
10.18 15:08

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     10.22.2014 1:16 PM
Ted Sevransky     10.20.2014 11:26 AM
Ted Sevransky     10.15.2014 1:09 PM
Ted Sevransky     10.13.2014 12:14 PM
Ted Sevransky     10.06.2014 12:25 PM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 25, 2014 09:44 AM.