SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
Sports Memo Ad 0
SATURDAY CFB LIVE CHAT
w/ the Sportsemo Cappers
Thoughts and Analysis
FREE HALFTIME PICKS
Not a forum member?
CLICK TO SIGN UP FOR FREE
Sports Memo Ad 0
Weekly NBA or CBB $99
November CBB $149
October/November NBA $299
Full Season NBA or CBB $999
Erin Rynning NBA $1299
CLICK HERE TO PURCHASE
Sports Memo Ad 1
WEEKLY FOOTBALL
Tuesday-Monday Coverage
College Football or NFL $99
CFB/NFL Combo $149
Great option for daily purchasers
CLICK HERE TO CASH IN
Sports Memo Ad 2
20* Prepaid Pack
Handicapper of your choice
Next Five 20* selections
Discounted Rate of only $99
Purchase online
Sports Memo Ad 3
VIP FREE PLAY EMAIL
Enter email on front page
Free Play w/ analysis
See who's hot at Sportsmemo
Special unpublished offers
Register an account today!

HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSTOOLSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERSTWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Arena Football League Betting Tips: Looking at the stats that matter

05.24.2011     11:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When it comes to statistics, there aren’t many good measurables in the Arena Football League. The only way to get accurate data for games that you aren’t watching is to go through the play-by-play logs at arenafootball.com. I’m interested in only one stat – touchdowns per possession. Teams with a 0.8 ratio are solid; teams with a 0.5 ratio or below are bet against type squads.

Yardage numbers mean very little. Three of the top five teams in total yardage this season are sub .500 squads. The best defense (by yardage numbers) is actually a bottom feeder team with turnover problems, leading to short fields for their opponents. I personally don’t use yardage numbers as part of my handicap.

Useful quarterback measurables include yards per pass attempt (a measure of downfield accuracy and WR playmaking ability) and TD-INT ratio. Red zone offensive and defensive stats are meaningful as well – this is one league where the better teams will take advantage of their scoring opportunities.

But the single most important AFL stat is the No. 1 stat for the NFL and college football as well: turnover margin. The best teams will win the turnover battle week after week, while the weaker teams will turn the ball over repeatedly. For a prime example, look no further than the best two teams of the first half: the Jacksonville Sharks and the Arizona Rattlers.

Through the first ten games of the season, Jacksonville is 9-1 and Arizona is 8-2; the two best records in the league. Both teams are exactly +16 in turnovers through those ten games; each squad creating 30 turnovers while committing only 14 themselves. The Orlando Predators, Cleveland Gladiators and Chicago Rush all rank at +5 or better in turnover margin, and those three teams would all be in the playoffs if the postseason started today.

On the other end of the spectrum are the New Orleans VooDoo and the Tampa Bay Storm; a combined 6-14 SU. Those are the only two teams that have averaged -1 turnover per game or worse. The Tulsa Talons, Philadelphia Soul and Spokane Shock are all at -6 or worse for the season. Each of those teams has been a major disappointment and all at least two games under .500. That grouping includes last year’s Arena Bowl champs (Spokane) and the previous champs (Philadelphia).

At the halfway point, those turnover margins have been the top predictor of pointspread success. Jacksonville has covered at an 8-0-2 ATS clip (10-0 ATS if you shopped around). Arizona hasn’t been quite as good ATS, but they’ve been moneymakers as well.

No surprise that Arizona and Jacksonville have the two best quarterbacks in the league this year; emerging star Nick Davila and aging AFL legend Aaron Garcia. Those two are known commodities, and much of the value has already been bet out of them through the first half of the season.

Projecting forward to the second half of the campaign, I’m looking for pass efficiency and turnover margin numbers that aren’t quite as good as the elite teams, but still good enough to attract my betting interest. Utah’s Tommy Grady stands out as an emerging QB capable of taking his team to the playoffs (and making us some money in the process). Chicago’s Russ Michna is another proven commodity type of veteran, with multiple playoff wins under his belt. Georgia’s Brett Elliott and San Jose’s Mark Grieb are two more veterans with proven track records.

I’ve also got my eye on a couple of young quarterbacks who have not developed a reputation just yet, but who have shown me enormous promise and potential. Serious college football fans should remember both guys. Bernard Morris, who graduated from Marshall in 2009, is a rookie with the expansion Pittsburgh Power. He spent a month on IR with a sore arm, but since his return from injury, he’s led the Power to back-to-back upset wins as home underdogs.

Daniel Raudabaugh starred at Miami-Ohio; another young QB with a bright future. Raudabaugh doesn’t have Morris’s scrambling acumen out of the pocket, but he’s one of the few quarterbacks in the league with a legitimate running game to work with. Fullback Derrick Ross already has 23 rushing touchdowns and 354 rushing yards for the Dallas Vigilantes, giving their offense more balance than any other team in the AFL.

Tags: AFL Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
PowerNFLCFBMLBNBA
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$39
Huge showdown in the ACC on Thursday with defending champs Florida State headed to Louisville. OTTO Sports has a winning report for this contest; only $39 and guaranteed to win or his next top rated football report is free.

$39
ER knows the Big 10 Conference as well as anyone from a betting perspective and he's unleashed his STRONGEST Big 10 play of the year on Saturday. ER has released his 20* CFB Big 10 Game of the Year and he expects an easy winner, while he's nailed his bets to a tune of 59% LONGTERM. Get ER's 20* CFB play is $39 and is guaranteed to win or Sunday's best bet is on the house.

$39
Looking to get a beat on the betting markets, Andrew Lange is already locked and loaded with Saturday's top rated 20* best bet. Lange has delivered 57% winners across all sports in 2014 including a 6-3 67% mark with his CFB 20*s. Get on board for $39; guaranteed to win or his next football play is on the house.

$39
Off another 20* winner last week (Kansas State -10), Paul Stone has now hit seven of his nine 20*s this season and he's looking to get a beat on the betting markets with this Big XII Game of the Year selection for Saturday. Get in early for $39; guaranteed to cash or Paul's next top rated football play is free.

$35
Paul Stone has been in great form and comes in with a best bet 15* on Saturday's huge Oregon vs. Stanford matchup. Watch and win with Stone for $35; guaranteed to cash or his next report is free of charge.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
10.25 16:07
10.25 15:34
10.25 14:14
10.25 13:34
10.25 13:09

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     10.29.2014 2:30 PM
Ted Sevransky     10.29.2014 10:49 AM
Ted Sevransky     10.27.2014 12:39 PM
Ted Sevransky     10.22.2014 1:16 PM
Ted Sevransky     10.20.2014 11:26 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 30, 2014 05:57 AM.