SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
Sports Memo Ad 0

Pro Bettor Erin Rynning
OWNS THE NBA POSTSEASON
7 straight profitable playoffs
Documented: 94-52 64% +40.7
14-6 70% +8.5 2014 Playoffs
Full Playoffs only $299

Sports Memo Ad 0
VIP FREE PLAY EMAIL
Enter email on front page
Free Play w/ analysis
See who's hot at Sportsmemo
Special unpublished offers
Register an account today!
Sports Memo Ad 1

April Extended Service
April MLB $199
All of NHL Playoffs $199
All of NBA Playoffs $299
Weekly Service $99
Click here to purchase

Sports Memo Ad 2

NBA YTD Top Producers
Marty Otto +20.5 units
Erin Rynning +14.75 units
Ian Cameron +12.1 units
Teddy Covers +8.6 units
NBA Playoffs $299

Sports Memo Ad 3

2014 MLB Top Producers
Sammy P: 90-59 +25.45
Rynning: 76-61 +17.48
Crow: 71-55 +17.16
Veno: 194-188 +15.61
April MLB now $199

Sports Memo Ad 4
20* Prepaid Pack
Handicapper of your choice
Next Five 20* selections
Discounted Rate of only $99
Purchase online

HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSTOOLSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERSTWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Arena Football League Betting Tips: Looking at the stats that matter

05.24.2011     11:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When it comes to statistics, there aren’t many good measurables in the Arena Football League. The only way to get accurate data for games that you aren’t watching is to go through the play-by-play logs at arenafootball.com. I’m interested in only one stat – touchdowns per possession. Teams with a 0.8 ratio are solid; teams with a 0.5 ratio or below are bet against type squads.

Yardage numbers mean very little. Three of the top five teams in total yardage this season are sub .500 squads. The best defense (by yardage numbers) is actually a bottom feeder team with turnover problems, leading to short fields for their opponents. I personally don’t use yardage numbers as part of my handicap.

Useful quarterback measurables include yards per pass attempt (a measure of downfield accuracy and WR playmaking ability) and TD-INT ratio. Red zone offensive and defensive stats are meaningful as well – this is one league where the better teams will take advantage of their scoring opportunities.

But the single most important AFL stat is the No. 1 stat for the NFL and college football as well: turnover margin. The best teams will win the turnover battle week after week, while the weaker teams will turn the ball over repeatedly. For a prime example, look no further than the best two teams of the first half: the Jacksonville Sharks and the Arizona Rattlers.

Through the first ten games of the season, Jacksonville is 9-1 and Arizona is 8-2; the two best records in the league. Both teams are exactly +16 in turnovers through those ten games; each squad creating 30 turnovers while committing only 14 themselves. The Orlando Predators, Cleveland Gladiators and Chicago Rush all rank at +5 or better in turnover margin, and those three teams would all be in the playoffs if the postseason started today.

On the other end of the spectrum are the New Orleans VooDoo and the Tampa Bay Storm; a combined 6-14 SU. Those are the only two teams that have averaged -1 turnover per game or worse. The Tulsa Talons, Philadelphia Soul and Spokane Shock are all at -6 or worse for the season. Each of those teams has been a major disappointment and all at least two games under .500. That grouping includes last year’s Arena Bowl champs (Spokane) and the previous champs (Philadelphia).

At the halfway point, those turnover margins have been the top predictor of pointspread success. Jacksonville has covered at an 8-0-2 ATS clip (10-0 ATS if you shopped around). Arizona hasn’t been quite as good ATS, but they’ve been moneymakers as well.

No surprise that Arizona and Jacksonville have the two best quarterbacks in the league this year; emerging star Nick Davila and aging AFL legend Aaron Garcia. Those two are known commodities, and much of the value has already been bet out of them through the first half of the season.

Projecting forward to the second half of the campaign, I’m looking for pass efficiency and turnover margin numbers that aren’t quite as good as the elite teams, but still good enough to attract my betting interest. Utah’s Tommy Grady stands out as an emerging QB capable of taking his team to the playoffs (and making us some money in the process). Chicago’s Russ Michna is another proven commodity type of veteran, with multiple playoff wins under his belt. Georgia’s Brett Elliott and San Jose’s Mark Grieb are two more veterans with proven track records.

I’ve also got my eye on a couple of young quarterbacks who have not developed a reputation just yet, but who have shown me enormous promise and potential. Serious college football fans should remember both guys. Bernard Morris, who graduated from Marshall in 2009, is a rookie with the expansion Pittsburgh Power. He spent a month on IR with a sore arm, but since his return from injury, he’s led the Power to back-to-back upset wins as home underdogs.

Daniel Raudabaugh starred at Miami-Ohio; another young QB with a bright future. Raudabaugh doesn’t have Morris’s scrambling acumen out of the pocket, but he’s one of the few quarterbacks in the league with a legitimate running game to work with. Fullback Derrick Ross already has 23 rushing touchdowns and 354 rushing yards for the Dallas Vigilantes, giving their offense more balance than any other team in the AFL.

Tags: AFL Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
PowerNFLCFBMLBNBA
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$20
Rob Veno has posted +109.11 units of profit since the start of 2013 and for Sunday action he checks in with a 10* Best Bet Release. Rob's play is just $20 and must win or you receive his next NBA report at no additional cost.

$20
Drew Martin's debut at Sportsmemo has been a dandy and he and his clients have already put over +3 units in the bank this baseball season. Off yesterday's sweet plus price winner he comes in with a selection on this afternoon's Red Sox vs. Orioles game. Lock it is for $20; a must win or his next play is on the house.

$20
Robbie V has produced tremendously successful back-back MLB seasons raking in +36.24 and 15.60 units in 2013 & 2014. Today Rob has released a 10* MLB Best Bet selection for Sunday action and you can join him for only $20. This play must win or you will receive tomorrow's MLB card free of charge.

$20
Teddy is ready to cash in supporting a powerful and motivated favorite in a prime blowout spot on Sunday. Lay the very reasonable price with the chalk and expect an easy right side winner! This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

$20
Ian Cameron and been scorching the bases with six straight winners for the clients. Check out this afternoon's 10* totals report for only $20. Ian's play is a guaranteed winner or his next selection is on the house.

$20
Teddy is ready to deliver a right side NBA Playoff winner on Sunday! Take the points with this powerful and motivated underdog, but be sure to have at least a taste of the dog on the moneyline in a game they are quite capable of winning! This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

$20
Erin Rynning is ABSOLUTELY ON FIRE with +9.5 units of profit in the bank the over the last six days. Cash in on tonight's Sunday Night Baseball game between the Mets and Yankees. It must win or his next baseball pick is on the house.

$20
Having hit 59% in all sports over the last 15+ months, Andrew Lange checks in with a 10* side report on tonight's Mets vs. Yankees on ESPN. Cash in on this winner for only $20; guaranteed to win or his next play is on the house.

$20
Sammy P comes in today with a winning report in what should be a battle tonight. Sammy has your winning play right here for just $20; guaranteed to win or his next hockey report is on the house.

$20
Sammy P comes in today with another strong play on the bases! Don't miss out on his terrific MLB run from last season that saw him lead all Sportsmemo cappers in MLB Units produced! This 10* MLB Play of the Day is yours for only $20; a guaranteed winner or his next selection is on the house!


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
04.16 10:46
04.08 11:26
04.08 11:18
04.08 11:16
04.06 13:40

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     04.23.2015 11:37 AM
Ted Sevransky     04.20.2015 7:55 AM
Ted Sevransky     04.16.2015 10:34 AM
Ted Sevransky     04.15.2015 11:17 AM
Ted Sevransky     04.13.2015 7:23 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Apr 26, 2015 10:12 AM.