SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
All Available Packages
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Arena Football League Betting Tips: Looking at the stats that matter

05.24.2011     11:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When it comes to statistics, there aren’t many good measurables in the Arena Football League. The only way to get accurate data for games that you aren’t watching is to go through the play-by-play logs at arenafootball.com. I’m interested in only one stat – touchdowns per possession. Teams with a 0.8 ratio are solid; teams with a 0.5 ratio or below are bet against type squads.

Yardage numbers mean very little. Three of the top five teams in total yardage this season are sub .500 squads. The best defense (by yardage numbers) is actually a bottom feeder team with turnover problems, leading to short fields for their opponents. I personally don’t use yardage numbers as part of my handicap.

Useful quarterback measurables include yards per pass attempt (a measure of downfield accuracy and WR playmaking ability) and TD-INT ratio. Red zone offensive and defensive stats are meaningful as well – this is one league where the better teams will take advantage of their scoring opportunities.

But the single most important AFL stat is the No. 1 stat for the NFL and college football as well: turnover margin. The best teams will win the turnover battle week after week, while the weaker teams will turn the ball over repeatedly. For a prime example, look no further than the best two teams of the first half: the Jacksonville Sharks and the Arizona Rattlers.

Through the first ten games of the season, Jacksonville is 9-1 and Arizona is 8-2; the two best records in the league. Both teams are exactly +16 in turnovers through those ten games; each squad creating 30 turnovers while committing only 14 themselves. The Orlando Predators, Cleveland Gladiators and Chicago Rush all rank at +5 or better in turnover margin, and those three teams would all be in the playoffs if the postseason started today.

On the other end of the spectrum are the New Orleans VooDoo and the Tampa Bay Storm; a combined 6-14 SU. Those are the only two teams that have averaged -1 turnover per game or worse. The Tulsa Talons, Philadelphia Soul and Spokane Shock are all at -6 or worse for the season. Each of those teams has been a major disappointment and all at least two games under .500. That grouping includes last year’s Arena Bowl champs (Spokane) and the previous champs (Philadelphia).

At the halfway point, those turnover margins have been the top predictor of pointspread success. Jacksonville has covered at an 8-0-2 ATS clip (10-0 ATS if you shopped around). Arizona hasn’t been quite as good ATS, but they’ve been moneymakers as well.

No surprise that Arizona and Jacksonville have the two best quarterbacks in the league this year; emerging star Nick Davila and aging AFL legend Aaron Garcia. Those two are known commodities, and much of the value has already been bet out of them through the first half of the season.

Projecting forward to the second half of the campaign, I’m looking for pass efficiency and turnover margin numbers that aren’t quite as good as the elite teams, but still good enough to attract my betting interest. Utah’s Tommy Grady stands out as an emerging QB capable of taking his team to the playoffs (and making us some money in the process). Chicago’s Russ Michna is another proven commodity type of veteran, with multiple playoff wins under his belt. Georgia’s Brett Elliott and San Jose’s Mark Grieb are two more veterans with proven track records.

I’ve also got my eye on a couple of young quarterbacks who have not developed a reputation just yet, but who have shown me enormous promise and potential. Serious college football fans should remember both guys. Bernard Morris, who graduated from Marshall in 2009, is a rookie with the expansion Pittsburgh Power. He spent a month on IR with a sore arm, but since his return from injury, he’s led the Power to back-to-back upset wins as home underdogs.

Daniel Raudabaugh starred at Miami-Ohio; another young QB with a bright future. Raudabaugh doesn’t have Morris’s scrambling acumen out of the pocket, but he’s one of the few quarterbacks in the league with a legitimate running game to work with. Fullback Derrick Ross already has 23 rushing touchdowns and 354 rushing yards for the Dallas Vigilantes, giving their offense more balance than any other team in the AFL.

Tags: AFL Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$25
Big game on tap this evening on national TV as St. Louis takes on Washington on FOX. Erin Rynning comes in with a 15* Playmaker selection on the game. Get on board and watch and win for only $25. It must cash or his next top rated baseball play is on the house.

$20
Fresh off an easy winner with the Cavs last night, Teddy is heating up in the NBA Playoffs. He is riding a 75% Run this week heading into this Saturday Night Showdown as the Thunder and Warriors battle in OKC. What should bettors expect tonight? Find out here before it happens & cash in riding this rock solid winner. This play must cash or his next report is free

$20
With six out of seven winners and 69% winners over the last three weeks, Andrew Lange looks to keep it rolling with a 10* report for tonight's MLB action. Get on board for $20. It must win or Lange's next selection is free of charge.

$20
Take advantage of this mispriced line, giving Teddy and his clients a positive expectation return on investment supporting a plus price underdog that should be favored. Teddy is in rock solid current form, playing nothing but underdogs, short favorites and totals. Expect more winning action tonight! This play must cash or his next report is free!

$20
Rob is on a ROLL in MLB the L24 days going 31-14 68.9% collecting +19.0 units! He has been on an overall tear in May going 42-24 63.6% and today he's focused in on a play that he's released as his 10* MLB Saturday Run Line Blowout. You can join him for just $20 and this play must win or you will receive his next MLB 10* selection free of charge.

$20
Ian Cameron is ready to deliver more winning action on the diamond tonight in late night action with his 10* MLB West Coast Winner. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $20 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next MLB play is free.

$20
Drew Martin is in with a 10* selection on tonight's card. This top play is part of the late night slate, it is Drew's only selection on a full Saturday MLB card, an isolated play that is only $20 guaranteed to win- or his next selection is absolutely free of charge.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
05.21 10:34
03.26 10:33
03.19 12:56
03.18 00:38
03.17 17:19

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     05.23.2016 10:22 AM
Ted Sevransky     05.20.2016 10:01 AM
Ted Sevransky     05.16.2016 11:37 AM
Ted Sevransky     05.09.2016 10:47 AM
Ted Sevransky     05.04.2016 12:58 PM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   May 28, 2016 03:02 PM.