All Available Packages

Arena Football League Betting Tips: Looking at the stats that matter

05.24.2011     11:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
When it comes to statistics, there aren’t many good measurables in the Arena Football League. The only way to get accurate data for games that you aren’t watching is to go through the play-by-play logs at I’m interested in only one stat – touchdowns per possession. Teams with a 0.8 ratio are solid; teams with a 0.5 ratio or below are bet against type squads.

Yardage numbers mean very little. Three of the top five teams in total yardage this season are sub .500 squads. The best defense (by yardage numbers) is actually a bottom feeder team with turnover problems, leading to short fields for their opponents. I personally don’t use yardage numbers as part of my handicap.

Useful quarterback measurables include yards per pass attempt (a measure of downfield accuracy and WR playmaking ability) and TD-INT ratio. Red zone offensive and defensive stats are meaningful as well – this is one league where the better teams will take advantage of their scoring opportunities.

But the single most important AFL stat is the No. 1 stat for the NFL and college football as well: turnover margin. The best teams will win the turnover battle week after week, while the weaker teams will turn the ball over repeatedly. For a prime example, look no further than the best two teams of the first half: the Jacksonville Sharks and the Arizona Rattlers.

Through the first ten games of the season, Jacksonville is 9-1 and Arizona is 8-2; the two best records in the league. Both teams are exactly +16 in turnovers through those ten games; each squad creating 30 turnovers while committing only 14 themselves. The Orlando Predators, Cleveland Gladiators and Chicago Rush all rank at +5 or better in turnover margin, and those three teams would all be in the playoffs if the postseason started today.

On the other end of the spectrum are the New Orleans VooDoo and the Tampa Bay Storm; a combined 6-14 SU. Those are the only two teams that have averaged -1 turnover per game or worse. The Tulsa Talons, Philadelphia Soul and Spokane Shock are all at -6 or worse for the season. Each of those teams has been a major disappointment and all at least two games under .500. That grouping includes last year’s Arena Bowl champs (Spokane) and the previous champs (Philadelphia).

At the halfway point, those turnover margins have been the top predictor of pointspread success. Jacksonville has covered at an 8-0-2 ATS clip (10-0 ATS if you shopped around). Arizona hasn’t been quite as good ATS, but they’ve been moneymakers as well.

No surprise that Arizona and Jacksonville have the two best quarterbacks in the league this year; emerging star Nick Davila and aging AFL legend Aaron Garcia. Those two are known commodities, and much of the value has already been bet out of them through the first half of the season.

Projecting forward to the second half of the campaign, I’m looking for pass efficiency and turnover margin numbers that aren’t quite as good as the elite teams, but still good enough to attract my betting interest. Utah’s Tommy Grady stands out as an emerging QB capable of taking his team to the playoffs (and making us some money in the process). Chicago’s Russ Michna is another proven commodity type of veteran, with multiple playoff wins under his belt. Georgia’s Brett Elliott and San Jose’s Mark Grieb are two more veterans with proven track records.

I’ve also got my eye on a couple of young quarterbacks who have not developed a reputation just yet, but who have shown me enormous promise and potential. Serious college football fans should remember both guys. Bernard Morris, who graduated from Marshall in 2009, is a rookie with the expansion Pittsburgh Power. He spent a month on IR with a sore arm, but since his return from injury, he’s led the Power to back-to-back upset wins as home underdogs.

Daniel Raudabaugh starred at Miami-Ohio; another young QB with a bright future. Raudabaugh doesn’t have Morris’s scrambling acumen out of the pocket, but he’s one of the few quarterbacks in the league with a legitimate running game to work with. Fullback Derrick Ross already has 23 rushing touchdowns and 354 rushing yards for the Dallas Vigilantes, giving their offense more balance than any other team in the AFL.

Tags: AFL Teddy Covers

This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:

Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?

More VIP Email Options
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
Teddys strongest plays his 20* Big Ticket Reports are heating up right now. Teddy swept the board with his Big Tickets last weekend! Fresh off another easy, right side winner with Virginia Tech on Thursday, Teddy is riding a long term 61% college football run: consistent profits. Don?t miss this Wrong Team Favored 20* Cash! This play must win or his next report is free!

Ian Cameron has a dominant track record with his 20* releases in College Football cashing at a 47-25 65% clip banking +39.1 units with his top rated 20* CFB plays since joining Sportsmemo. Ian is 5-2 71% with his 20* College Football plays this season and he is ready to unleash another strong, top rated winner on Saturday with his 20* CFB C-USA Total Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB play is free.

Drew Martin is in with his highest rated play out of the Mountain West Conference. Straight off of last week's 20* winner on the Texas State/ ULM over, he looks to make it three straight 20* cashes in the group of 5 conferences. By now, you know it is a great time to profit in early conference CFB play. This 20* MWC Game of the Month is only $39 and guaranteed to hit or Drew's next top play is on the house.

Brent Crow is up and loaded with a HUGE 20-star SEC Primetime winner between LSU and Ole Miss. Join him and watch and win with this huge rivalry game. Brent has isolated several strong factors that show this one being an easy winner. Get this week's best bet now for $39 guaranteed to win or his next report is yours free.

Rob Veno is among the elite when it comes to his Top Tier releases raking in +29.8 units while posting a 79-58 57.7% mark since 2013 with his CFB 15* Best Bet & 20* Bluechip Totals. Rob has released a 15* CFB Best Bet Totals Destroyer which comes in Saturday action and you can join him on this play for only $25. This selection must win or you will receive Rob's next 10* CFB report free of charge.

Erin Rynning and his clients are off to a monster start in the NFL with over +12 units of profit. For Sunday, he comes in with a MONSTER 20* total in the AFC. Hop on board with the NFL's No. 1 handicapper for $39. It must cash or his next top rated football selection is on the house.

Teddy has nailed three straight 20* Big Ticket Reports, all easy, right side cashes like the KC Chiefs at Oakland last Sunday. He is primed to deliver the goods this week with his 20* Big Ticket Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR as the Seahawks and Cardinals battle in Arizona, putting his STRONG 62% NFL season on the line. Get it here, now! This play must win or his next report is FREE!

OTTO Sports owns the big plays with 67% winners and +38 units of profit with his top rated 20*s in college and pro football over the last two years. Get Sunday's 20* AFC South Game of the Month for $39. A must win or OTTO's next top play is free of charge.

Rob Veno has established himself as one of the nation's elite Best Bet handicappers with his famed 20* Bluechip releases. Since 2014 Rob has posted a record of 122-81 60.2% +71.4 units with his 20* Bluechip plays in All Sports. For Sunday action Rob has released his 20* Bluechip Game Of The Month. You can join Rob on this play for only $39 and it must win or you will receive his next 20* report at no additional cost.

Ian Cameron CRUSHED the books in the NFL last season putting together a very strong winning campaign with a 32-20 record for 62% winning action and +12.3 units of profit. He is rolling this NFL season as well with a strong 17-8 record 68% for +11.8 units of profit. Ian has notched a 5-1 83% record with his NFL 20* plays this season and he is ready to deliver another top rated winner in NFL action on Sunday with his 20* NFL Game Of The Month with strong fundamental and situational aspects combining to make this his strongest NFL side in October. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NFL play is free.

Drew Martin is very selective when it comes to the NFL and that stands pat this weekend as he is out with only two plays on the NFL card. Drew has his highest rated play of the entire month of October kicking off Sunday afternoon between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the San Francisco 49ers. Drew's Top Shelf NFL Game Of The Month is only $39 guaranteed to win or Drew's next selection is yours at no extra charge.

Alex B. Smith has isolated one single play in the NFL this week that he is firing away on as his October Game of the Month. This 20* BlockBuster release lines up as on of his strongest selections of the season thus far, and you can grab this Best Bet selection, complete with detailed written analysis, right now for only $39. If this Game of the Month fails to cash in, you will get Alex B.'s next NFL play on the house.

Brent Crow is off to a great start in the NFL with an 11-6 65% mark after the first six weeks. He has another top rated 20-star winner, his underdog Game of the Month in the NFL ready now for Sunday's action. Get this huge 20-star winner now for just $39! It must win or his next top rated selection is free.

Unmatched production in the NFL for Andrew Lange and his clients with 62% winners and over +45 units since 2012. He's off to a stellar 10-6 63% start to 2016 so don't miss out on Sunday's 15* Best Bet. It's a guaranteed winner or Lange's next top rated football selection is on the house.

Rob Veno is attacking the NFL season with a vengeance posting an 22-10 68.8% +13.2 unit mark in 2016 with his Sides & Totals. Rob has released a 15* NFL Best Bet NFC Matchup which comes in Sunday action and you can join him on this play for only $35. This selection must win or you will receive Rob's next 15* NFL report free of charge.

It's a massive slate of Saturday action in the NHL and Alex B. Smith has you covered on the ice with a Top Total of the night Get his 10* release on this contest, complete with detailed written analysis, for only $20! If this total fails to cash in, you will receive Alex B.'s next NHL play at no extra cost.

Ian Cameron has put together a strong 4 year run of consistent profits on the ice banking +13.48 units of profit in the NHL since 2012 including back-to-back winning seasons. He is ready to deliver a rock solid winner on the ice tonight with his 10* NHL Saturday Top Play. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $20 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NHL play is free.

Nobody wins in the Canadian Football League like Ian Cameron and his track record proves it banking +23.62 units in the CFL since 2012 including a RED HOT 33-22 60% mark for +12.1 units this season. He is ready to deliver the goods once again on Saturday night in football action north of the border with his 10* CFL Saturday Top Play. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $20 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFL play is free.

Extended Services
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
Post Subject
10.17 11:24
10.15 21:13
10.15 21:11
10.15 18:18
10.15 18:12

Current Blog
Ted Sevransky     10.20.2016 11:14 AM
Ted Sevransky     10.16.2016 9:40 AM
Ted Sevransky     10.13.2016 11:23 AM
Ted Sevransky     10.05.2016 12:06 PM
Ted Sevransky     10.01.2016 10:51 PM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers


Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at   Oct 22, 2016 12:38 PM.