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Betting College Football: Early Week Line Move Analysis

11.09.2010     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Each week here in the Sportsmemo Blog we will take a look at all of the significant early line moves in college football. See chart below for game listings.

The betting market has been fairly active in fading Bowling Green this season but the Falcons have earned most of the money for Wednesday's contest against Miami (OH). The RedHawks are the better team but do not have a lot of experience laying more than a field goal on the road (twice since 2006).

What have you done for me lately? Following its home loss to Mississippi State, Florida wasn't exactly overflowing with betting interest but a dramatic win over Georgia and then a road thrashing at Vanderbilt resulted in the market pushing the Gators up to as high as 7-point favorites for Saturday's SEC "East" Championship. Value bettors then took out all the 7's as Florida now sits -6.5 across the board.

On initial glance, Army as a 3.5-point road favorite over Kent State was simply a bad line. After taking out the 3.5's on Sunday night, a couple big moves came in on Kent Monday morning as the game is now priced as a pick 'em at most shops.

Hard to imagine that Rice as less than a touchdown underdog on the road could get many people excited. The Owls, now 4-point underdogs at Tulane, are inching closer and closer to needing to win this game outright in order to cash a ticket. Rice hasn't won a road conference game in two years.

Not a big move but enough to point out as Oklahoma State was bet down from a 7-point road favorite to -6 against Texas in Austin. Some probably feel that the Longhorns are a dead team but keep in mind they haven't been a home underdog since 1999 when they handed Nebraska (-9.5) its only loss of the year.

Ole Miss opened as a favorite at Tennessee but the market didn't feel comfortable with the Rebels as road chalk in SEC play. The Vols (3-6) have a manageable schedule (vs. Ole Miss, at Vanderbilt, vs. Kentucky) to try and reach .500 and make the postseason.

They have yet to play Boise State, but Fresno State is still technically in the WAC title hunt with just once conference loss. This weekend's showdown looks like a quintessential Bulldog profile: Nationally televised on ESPN, home underdog, revenge after allowing Nevada to close out last year's game on a 42-0 run.

Two potentially dead teams in North Texas and Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders should be up for a better performance at home as the market felt this line came out a tad short.

Early Week CFB Line Moves 11/13
Away
Home
CRIS Opener
CRIS Current
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
Miami (OH) -3.5
Miami (OH) -2.5
South Carolina
Florida
Florida -4.5
Florida -6.5
Army
Kent State
Army -3.5
Kent State pk
Rice
Tulane
Tulane -6.5
Tulane -4
Oklahoma State
Texas
Oklahoma State -7
Oklahoma State -6
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Ole Miss -2
Tennessee -1.5
Nevada
Fresno State
Nevada -11
Nevada -8.5
North Texas
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee -7.5
Middle Tennessee -10.5
   


Tags: College Football Florida Gators South Carolina Gamecocks Texas Longhorns Oklahoma State Cowboys SEC





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