Idaho State +15 at Northern Arizona
Recommendation: Idaho State
I've followed the Big Sky closely over the last few years and have always subscribed to the theory that no team should be favored by more than double-digits, especially early on in the campaign when teams are still establishing themselves.
Last season, against the top four teams in the league, Idaho State was never more than a 14-point underdog. You look at ISU's league results last year and they were competing on a nightly basis before giving way late in the season after hopes of a conference tournament berth were dashed.
We are early in the Big Sky season (every team has played two league games) and you'll notice that only once have we seen a contest decided by more than tonight's pointspread. Even Sacramento State, who is one of the worst programs in the country, opened Big Sky play with two overtime losses on the road.
If you are judging this matchup on previous results then it is easy to see reasons for the inflated pointspread but it doesn't account for the overall nature of the conference which produces a high rate of games decided by single-digits. They are ugly, but I'm on Idaho State.