– It appears now that the expectations of St. John’s fan base and the entire betting community were set to high. At 6-10 ATS (worst mark in the Big East) and currently on a 1-4 pointspread skid, the Red Storm is quickly turning into a money burner. Don’t look for things to stop anytime soon, especially with continued respect from oddsmakers and bettors alike.
During a recent five-game stretch, St. John’s has lost to the closing line by double-digits three times. Their other loss was of the straight up variety to a Cincinnati team which many pundits have begun to dismiss as a legitimate Big East upper echelon team. After losing to the Steelers last Sunday, New York fans and media all reverted back to their 41-year mantra of “same ol’ Jets”. The same applies for this St. John’s squad which despite a wealth of experienced veterans has reverted back to its crooked shooting ways. In three of their last five games, the Red Storm shot below 40% from the field and only once in their last six games have they exceeded 45%. They remain pretty steady on defense and they’re a scrappy bunch but they’re descent down the Big East standings this early in conference play isn’t any different from the Norm Roberts era.
The major difference from a betting perspective is that St. John’s power rating is higher than previous years and they are currently overvalued. Their upcoming seven-game schedule is an absolute bear and it’s really quite easy to see them going 2-5 ATS during that span. Unlike the five senior starters for Notre Dame, who are showing extreme poise and upside right now, this team is in a rut and needs someone to step up and drag them out before it becomes a full-fledged ditch.
This is the time where first-year head coach Steve Lavin and his staff have to find a way to right the ship but it doesn’t appear that will happen any time soon. Their overall numbers still look gaudy but the fast start and all the attention that went with it are costing St. John’s right now where lines and spread results are concerned. Don’t look for the numbers to be adjusted quickly enough as St. John’s cover rate will likely hover around 40% for the next month.
Part I - Notre Dame