UW-Milwaukee at UW-Green Bay -2.5 O/U 168.5
Recommendation: UW-Green Bay
Not a heck of a lot to choose from here tonight but there is an interesting spot on tonight Horizon League schedule we’ll look to take advantage of. For those who checked out today’s Sportsmemo CBB podcast
, you heard the uniqueness of Green Bay’s schedule pointed out by Andrew Lange and that element certainly plays a situational role here. UWGB has played 10 of their 12 conference games on the road thus far and they’ve played them in stretches of, five consecutive away from home, two at home and then five more away from home. Tonight starts a string of five straight home games to close out their regular season and expectation here is they’ll be fully focused and ready to make a late season surge in the standings. Currently at 7-6 in a tie with Milwaukee, the Phoenix has a favorable schedule which could catapult them all the way to second place and a double bye in the conference tournament. Revenge for their 95-94 loss to these Panthers just 17 days ago adds another situational angle to this handicap. In that contest, Green Bay shot 70.4% from two-point range and 63.3% overall but the 33-18 free throw differential resulted in a -12 on the scoreboard which ultimately led to the loss. In that game, Green Bay was able to get their preferred pace (149 possessions) and a close examination of Milwaukee shows that they’ve got caught up in faster tempo at time versus speedy league opponents. Tonight, have to believe they will shoot better than the season low 32.8% they shot against Detroit a couple days ago but don’t feel they’ll be able to slow Green Bay (80.4 possessions per game #1 in nation) down enough to make it matter. While UWGB’s schedule is on the positive side of its unique setup, UWM’s is on the negative side as this will be their fifth Horizon League in a row. Add to it the fact that the last three will have been versus up tempo Oakland, Detroit and now Green Bay all within the last five days and the chances of fatigue showing up are pretty good. Multiple angles here indicate Green Bay -2.5 is worth backing.