East Carolina at UCF -4 O/U 139
A few weeks back I wrote up a free play on East Carolina-UCF under 139. Early bettors were able to cash on the under but the game unfortunately landed right on 139 thanks to 51 points the final 10 minutes of the game and a slew of free throws late due to fouls. Prior to that flurry of points, the game was a dead nuts under. At half, UCF led 28-25, and with five minutes to go it was 56-51. These are two under type squads (10-14 O/U combined) with the Knights playing zone and boasting one of the biggest frontcourts in the country and the Pirates also playing zone. Both teams are also mirrors images of one another when it comes to pace (NCAA average) and offensive efficiency (again, NCAA average). The Knights are probably a little better defensively that their numbers suggest. They played two throw-away type games against Stetson and Bethune-Cookman where they traded baskets and everyone got to boost their stats. They also struggled against the high-power offenses of Davidson, Detroit, and SMU. Outside of that, this is a team that has been pretty consistent about holding teams in the 60's. ECU is in a similar boat with a few home wins against weak foes that produced big scores. As mentioned these two squads are very similar both offensive and defensively as well as power rating wise hence UCF priced as a small home favorite. Add in the second meeting and this should once again be a game where neither team hits the 70-point mark. Play it under.