Georgia Southern at South Alabama -7 O/U 134 
Recommendation: Over

South Alabama's offense has improved this season but the stats don't really show it. The reason is the Jaguars have really run the gauntlet in terms of tough opposing defenses. So far they've faced LSU, Mississippi State, Florida State, LSU, Southern Miss and UAB. In two other games, USA played three awful offenses in Alabama State, Alcorn State and Texas A&M Corpus Christ. As a result, their body work doesn't suggest that we should be looking to play over a moderate total of 134. But tonight is really the first time all season they'll play an opponent that can score at a decent clip and that struggles to defend. Georgia Southern is another team whose numbers are skewed because of the opposition. In three games against slow paced South Florida, SMU and EKU, the game scores and possessions were very low. But against teams that don't mind getting up and down the floor (Valpo, Wake Forest, Chattanooga and Appalachian State) we see game scores of 171, 153, 160 and 135. South Alabama head coach Ronnie Arrow was recently quoted as saying he would like his team to push the pace more and it showed in a 79 possession, 102-62 win over Alcorn State. Last time out, they beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 66-64 but because of the close nature of the game, it bogged down late and produced only 10 points the final 4:30. I expect to see a decent pace here and feel that both teams can reach the mid-60's and beyond.