Navy at Memphis
Saturday, 12:45 pm PT - ESPNU
CRIS Opener: Memphis -5.5 O/U 74.5
CRIS Current: Memphis -3 O/U 71
Recommendation: Over

 I am not sure either of these squads are well equipped to shut down what the other team does well offensively. Navy’s defense, which is playing more man-to-man, will be asked to defend one of the best passing attacks they’ll see this season. Memphis’ Riley Ferguson leads an offense that is averaging over 500 ypg including 316 ypg through the air. The combination of Ferguson to receiver Anthony Miller has been spectacular as Miller hauled in 15 receptions for 224 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in last week’s 70-point outburst vs. UConn. Navy’s newly implemented defense, in theory, is supposed to create more pressure on the opposing quarterbacks and force more turnovers. Unfortunately, they’ve picked off only two passes and currently rank 123rd nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.9). As we saw last week vs. Air Force (8.6 ypp), this is a stop unit that is ripe to allow big plays. On the other side, Memphis is allowing over 6 yards per play and when asked to stop the run against UCF, they simply couldn’t do it as the Knights hung 350 yards on the ground. Last season, the Tigers allowed Navy to run wild (447 yards) in a 42-28 loss. Memphis is 4-1 O/U this season in large part due to a defense that has yielded 29, 45, 31, 40 and 31 points. And with an extra bit of value (total bet down to 71) I recommend a wager on the over.