UCF at Navy
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - CBSC
CRIS Opener: UCF -6.5 O/U 65
CRIS Current: UCF -7 O/U 65
The UCF Knights have not just beaten the pointspread this season, they have annihilated it by a combined 100 points for an average of 20 ppg. They have an explosive and balanced offense that averages 548 ypg at 8.1 ypp. It’s a unit to I project will give an undersized Navy defense plenty of problems. Despite playing two options teams (Tulane and Air Force), the Midshipmen defense has been average at best (6.2 ypp allowed) this season and heads into Saturday on the heels of back-to-back hard fought barn burners that came down to the last possession. UCF marks a huge step up in class and I could very easily see the Knights wearing down Navy’s defense in the second half which should lead to big chunks of yards.
UCF's defense has also looked the part this season (16.8 ppg allowed) but the schedule comes up a little light with four of its five opponents currently ranked 75th or worse in total offense. Navy is arguably the modest capable offense (18th total offense) the Knights have seen thus far. Note that Navy’s 27-point output against Memphis last week was a bit deceiving. The Midshipmen had 334 total yards of offense on 4.4 ypp but were plagued by five turnovers. Without the luxury of a recent previous meeting, UCF’s defense isn’t likely to post some of the dominating numbers they did against inferior competition. Tough to step in front of UCF with its strong track record of outpacing the betting markets but this is a dangerous matchup and the pressure of an undefeated season is starting the mount. I think the more appropriate play is on the over as both offenses should have success.