Kansas at Texas -28 O/U 64 
Recommendation: Texas

Kansas is taking a pounding, and on the surface is seems there is little value at this point playing against the Jayhawks. But this week’s matchup against Texas in Austin should be another one-sided affair and one in which the Longhorns will dominate at the point of attack. Only one team in the nation has a worse rushing defense than Kansas, as the Jayhawks allow 232 rushing ypg and a nation-worst 6.2 yard per rush. They will now face an ornery Texas team off a bye in which they had extra time to digest their back-to-back beatings by Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. The Longhorns run the ball for 176 ypg and allow just 105 ypg rushing. We can expect them to run wild on a weakened Kansas defense that was just shredded at home last week by rival Kansas State, 59-21. In that contest, Kansas was outrushed 261-76.

The line has been adjusted upward due to recent Kansas’ results and sieve defense that allows a nation-worst 550 ypg. Against FBS opponents this season, Kansas has allowed 59, 47, 70, 45, 66 and 42 points. The hiring of head coach Turner Gill is obviously not working out. This may not be a vintage Texas team, but even when Kansas was better, the Jayhawks were still outscored 176-34 in its last three trips to Austin.

No doubt Kansas has played a very tough schedule, and not only has their run defense been destroyed, but they also rank 119th in pass defense allowing nearly 320 passing ypg. The Longhorns rank among the nation’s leaders in pass efficiency defense and allow just 54% completions. Texas has inexperience at the quarterback position, and Kansas may stack the box more this week. But if Texas decides to stick its horns into Kansas and not let up, they too can win this contest by over four touchdowns.  

Know too that teams that outrush their opponent by at least a 2-to-1 margin are 144-41 (78%) ATS this season, and I see the Longhorns completely controlling the ground game and the point of attack this week.

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