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College Football Handicapping: A look back at Season Over/Under Wins

12.07.2015     08:06 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A quick look back at some of college football's biggest under and overachievers from a regular season over/under wins perspective. Original lines courtesy of CG Technology.

Florida  
Season Over/Under Wins: 7ov-130 
Regular Season Wins: 10 
Storyline: A couple of close wins and down seasons by a majority of the SEC East helped the Gators pop for 10 wins. They were only a modest +0.37 yards per play vs. SEC foes.

Georgia Tech 
Season Over/Under Wins: 7.5ov-140 
Regular Season Wins: 3 
Storyline: A shoddy offensive line and decline in skill position talent led to Paul Johnson's worst season in Atlanta. After posting the nation's top third down conversion rate in 2014 (57.9%) the Yellow Jackets plummeted to 108th (34.9%).

Iowa 
Season Over/Under Wins: 7.5un-120 
Regular Season Wins: 12 
Storyline: Buoyed by one of the easiest regular season conference schedules in the country (avoided Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, and Ohio State) and a +12 turnover margin, the Hawkeyes were one win away from making the Playoffs. 

North Carolina 
Season Over/Under Wins: 8un-150 
Regular Season Wins: 11 
Storyline: Like Iowa, UNC's regular season conference slate was favorable (avoided Clemson and Florida State). The Tar Heels did improve however by over a yard per play defensively.

Nebraska 
Season Over/Under Wins: 8ov-140 
Regular Season Wins: 5 
Storyline: The Cornhuskers lost six games by a touchdown or less and did outgain Big Ten foes on a ypp basis. That said, Brasky also ranked 108th in penalties and owned a -13 turnover margin.

Oklahoma  
Season Over/Under Wins: 8.5ov-160 
Regular Season Wins: 11 
Storyline: After losing to Texas, the Sooners outscored their last seven opponents by an average of 32.6 ppg.

South Carolina 
Season Over/Under Wins: 6.5ov-155 
Regular Season Wins: 3 
Storyline: Few remember, but the Gamecocks opened the season with a win over North Carolina. But Spurrier decided to bolt and without a competent quarterback they won only two more games (UCF and Vanderbilt) the remainder of the season.

Washington State 
Season Over/Under Wins: 5un-125 
Regular Season Wins: 8 
Storyline: The Cougs kicked off the season with a loss to Portland State but then won eight of their next 11. After forcing only eight turnovers which led to a -17 turnovers margin in 2014, Wazzu forced 21 and finished the season a respectable -3. That number would have been far better had it not been for Luke Falk's injury and a -6 margin in the season finale vs. Washington.

Tags: College Football




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