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College Football Handicapping: San Diego State to keep it simple on offense vs. Air Force

12.02.2015     10:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
With quarterback Maxwell Smith out for Saturday's Mountain West Championship vs. Air Force, San Diego State has been pretty vocal about playing it conservative with backup Christian Chapman under center. With Smith, San Diego State has quietly been one of the more effective offenses in the Mountain West with 6.11 yards per play in league play, behind only Air Force (6.55 ypp). Note also that the Aztecs didn't play the Falcons during the regular season therefore didn't spend much of any time during training camp practicing for the triple option. That said, SDSU won last year's meeting 30-14 and lost to Navy in the postseason, 17-16.

"We got good confidence in Christian Chapman. He throws the ball well, he is quick on his feet, he can get out of trouble. What he doesn't have is the experience," Long said. "We are going to probably have to be very conservative on offense. Make sure he's comfortable with everything we ask him to do. But he's going to have to throw the ball and complete some passes to give us a chance to move the ball like we want to."

Tags: College Football San Diego State Aztecs Air Force Falcons Mountain West

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12/02/2015 12:18 PM
Chapman looked good vs Nevada. Made quick decisions, took off and ran the ball some. Seems like a very nice complement to the stable of Darren Sproles-esque backs they have. Game will be won up front. AF gets after the QB but they do it with extra pressure and as we seen with the New Mexico RBs that found the creases and voids when AF brought that pressure, it can come at a cost. SDST has quicker, faster backs that have the vision and acceleration to run away from the AF defense as NM did. I like the undervalued market edge the backup situation provides for SDST. I think it has something to do with the way defensive game plans are so dependant on tendancies and the way teams rely so heavily on the data they get from HUDL. Ive noticed alot of success in betting on teams with new QBS, new OCs, DCs or interim HCs. just arent large enough sample sizes to create tendancy based game plans on these opponents. SDST MWC domination has flown way under the radar. SDST is one of very few teams in CFB history to go undefeated in conference play with all wins by 14 points or more. +19 turnover in conference play alone, +1500 yards, +20 sacks, top 5 run stop unit. Boise opened -14 at home vs AF just 2 weeks ago. SDST-4.5 looks like early xmas. I watched/read the press conference the Rocky Long quotes came from and I watched the backup qb play vs Nevada and my take was he was intentionally selling the kid short perhaps to get his team focused the way we see so many teams play when a starter goes down. if Im not mistaken, this kid almost won the job out of camp

12/02/2015 12:21 PM
Great analysis. Thanks.

12/02/2015 12:32 PM
Then you have the whole Rocky Long vs triple option success and tho they havent seen it ty they see it with AF, NM every yr so these SDST kids should have the instincts and discipline to handle an AF offense that has impressive numbers from ypp standpoint but vs the 5-6 bowl teams they have played are -13 turnovers in those games. sdst-4.5 seems to good to be true and we know how that can be in sportsbetting

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