SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
All Available Packages
NOTICE: If you can not view the forum, you may need to log out of SportsMemo.com and log back in to recreate your forum session.
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 9

11.08.2011     07:09 AM         Printer Friendly

Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, he has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing pointspread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter: @FairwayJay

Week 9 NFL favorites went 7-7 SU and 6-8 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 61-64-5 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Five division games in Week 9 and division underdogs went 3-2 SU and ATS. Home underdogs went 0-3 SU and ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 15-24 SU and 20-18-1 ATS. Scoring was up slightly from the previous two weeks, yet totals still went 5-9 O/U and are 65-63-2 YTD. There have been 5,795 points scored through 9 weeks for an average of 44.5 ppg. We had another winning week going 3-1 on Sunday with a pair of outright underdog winners on the Bengals and Dolphins and our lone loss on the Steelers/Ravens game under 42.5. Baltimore’s last second touchdown in a 23-20 win was tough to take in a game that featured no first half touchdowns and was 16-6 at one point in the fourth quarter. 

Teams that had meaningful rushing advantage over their opponents (30 or more yards) went 9-1 ATS in Week 9. Those rushing guidelines have now gone 65-24-2 ATS (73%); nearly up to the 10-year average of 76%. Strong running games have really led the way to victories the past four weeks; and if you’ve been able to project the rushing advantage as discussed, you’re making plenty of money. Over the last four weeks, teams that have outrushed their opponent by 30 or more yards have gone 31-4-2 ATS. The Broncos (299 yards, 7.9 ypr), Texans (261, 6.5), Saints (195), Bears (164) and Falcons (163) were all big ground gainers in in victory. The Browns (44) and Redskins (52) had the two worst rushing weeks, and you see how they did in defeat while losing for their betting backers.

Turnovers were also costly to the Raiders and Chargers with both teams suffering a 3-0 turnover differential in defeat. For the record, teams with a negative turnover margin of -3 or greater are now 1-16 ATS this season (0-17 SU). Teams with a -2 turnover differential are 5-28-1 ATS. So the impact of turnovers is significant, and actually hitting at a higher rate than the 91-92% history of -3 turnovers and approximately 80% for teams that are exactly -2 in the turnover column. 

Note that the four biggest passing days belonged to the Patriots, Steelers, Raiders, and Chargers and those teams went 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS. So what matters more, passing or rushing the ball in the NFL? Fans love to see the ball in the air and the great passing from premier quarterbacks. While few teams have great signal callers, we’re seeing a team like New England now struggle more without a adequate ground game or defense capable of stopping the run.

I have a proprietary database since 2000 showing rushing, passing and other stats of record, and projecting rushing success is one of the key statistical categories in ultimate pointspread winners. No other handicapper in the nation will provide you historically proven statistical insight and in-depth rushing information to obtain relevant results (ATS).

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Check back throughout each week for additional articles, analysis, insight and ‘Fairway Forecasts’ along with the best sports betting information at Sportsmemo.com/blogs.   
  
Fairway Jay is a premier, proven performer and recognized leader as one of the nation’s elite NFL handicappers. For 8-straight seasons, Fairway Jay has provided consistent winning and profits with unprecedented results. His 2010 season was a record-breaking performance as he went 55-30 ATS (65%) with over 30-units of profit (1 and 2 unit scale). Fairway Jay also won the 2010 Wise Guys invitation only football contest along with top honors on his best bet selections; going 14-3-1. If you’re looking to build your bankroll and work with a proven performer and pro, join Fairway Jay and profit from his experience. For winning results and useful information you can bet on, click here and sign up for one of the nation’s top football services.

Tags: NFL __




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
  Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
Teddy's ready to UNLOAD in college hoops tonight, locked & loaded with his very first 20* Big Ticket Report of the season! This is a prime 'Watch & Win' opportunity on ESPN2, as Iowa seeks revenge for a one point loss to the Cyclones last year! Can the Hawkeyes hang tough or is this a spot for a comfortable Iowa State victory? Find out here, before it happens & cash in tonight! This play must win or his next report is FREE!

$29
Brent Crow is ready with an easy winner for the Thursday night Primetime matchup between the Raiders and Chiefs. He has several indicators lined up on one side and looks to continue his success in the NFL, where he has hit 58% for the season. Get this huge Thursday night winner now for just $29! It must win or his next top rated selection is free.

$20
Rob Veno is off to a solid 16-8 66.7% start with his NBA Totals this season and tonight he's focused on a game with fundamental edges strong enough to release it as his 10* NBA Thursday Top Total. You can join him on this selection for just $20. Tonight's report must win or you will receive Rob's next Basketball release without any additional cost.

$29
Ian Cameron has put together a strong 4 year run of consistent profits on the ice including back-to-back winning seasons and he has caught fire with a solid 12-5 71% streak on the ice in NHL action. He is ready to unleash his strongest December side in NHL action tonight with his one and only 20* NHL Game Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $29 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NHL play is free.

$20
OTTO Sports knows the NBA as good as anyone, proven by his tremendous track record with +50.55 units on over 700 documented selections. In a sport that is becoming increasingly more difficult to beat, last year, he and his clients racked up 58% winners and over +12 units of profit. Don't miss out on tonight's 10* live underdog report. Only $20!

$20
Teddy delivered another NBA winner with Milwaukee last night; riding a moneymaking 60% NBA Run into Thursday! Expect more winning action tonight with this Live Dog Shocker, backing the superior team in a very attractive pointspread range! Get it now & cash in tonight! This play must win or his next report is FREE!

$49
Teddy is 80-59 in NFL action over the past two seasons. He is 51-38 with his Big Ticket Reports dating back to last October, delivering proven long term winning results for himself and his clients. Cash in on Sunday with Teddy's one and only 20* Big Ticket Game of the Year, the type of STRONG opportunity that doesn't come around every week! Do NOT miss this winner! This play must cash or his next report is FREE!

$39
Ian Cameron CRUSHED the books in the NFL last season putting together a very strong winning campaign with a 32-20 record for 62% winning action and +12.3 units of profit. He is rolling this NFL season as well with a strong 29-23 record 56% for +9.8 units of profit. Ian has notched a tremendous 10-3 77% record with his NFL 20* plays this season and he is ready to deliver another top rated winner in NFL action on Sunday with his 20* NFL Blowout Game Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NFL play is free.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------

More Blog Entries Submitted by

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Dec 08, 2016 02:05 PM.