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Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 9

11.08.2011     07:09 AM         Printer Friendly

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Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, he has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing pointspread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter: @FairwayJay

Week 9 NFL favorites went 7-7 SU and 6-8 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 61-64-5 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Five division games in Week 9 and division underdogs went 3-2 SU and ATS. Home underdogs went 0-3 SU and ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 15-24 SU and 20-18-1 ATS. Scoring was up slightly from the previous two weeks, yet totals still went 5-9 O/U and are 65-63-2 YTD. There have been 5,795 points scored through 9 weeks for an average of 44.5 ppg. We had another winning week going 3-1 on Sunday with a pair of outright underdog winners on the Bengals and Dolphins and our lone loss on the Steelers/Ravens game under 42.5. Baltimore’s last second touchdown in a 23-20 win was tough to take in a game that featured no first half touchdowns and was 16-6 at one point in the fourth quarter. 

Teams that had meaningful rushing advantage over their opponents (30 or more yards) went 9-1 ATS in Week 9. Those rushing guidelines have now gone 65-24-2 ATS (73%); nearly up to the 10-year average of 76%. Strong running games have really led the way to victories the past four weeks; and if you’ve been able to project the rushing advantage as discussed, you’re making plenty of money. Over the last four weeks, teams that have outrushed their opponent by 30 or more yards have gone 31-4-2 ATS. The Broncos (299 yards, 7.9 ypr), Texans (261, 6.5), Saints (195), Bears (164) and Falcons (163) were all big ground gainers in in victory. The Browns (44) and Redskins (52) had the two worst rushing weeks, and you see how they did in defeat while losing for their betting backers.

Turnovers were also costly to the Raiders and Chargers with both teams suffering a 3-0 turnover differential in defeat. For the record, teams with a negative turnover margin of -3 or greater are now 1-16 ATS this season (0-17 SU). Teams with a -2 turnover differential are 5-28-1 ATS. So the impact of turnovers is significant, and actually hitting at a higher rate than the 91-92% history of -3 turnovers and approximately 80% for teams that are exactly -2 in the turnover column. 

Note that the four biggest passing days belonged to the Patriots, Steelers, Raiders, and Chargers and those teams went 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS. So what matters more, passing or rushing the ball in the NFL? Fans love to see the ball in the air and the great passing from premier quarterbacks. While few teams have great signal callers, we’re seeing a team like New England now struggle more without a adequate ground game or defense capable of stopping the run.

I have a proprietary database since 2000 showing rushing, passing and other stats of record, and projecting rushing success is one of the key statistical categories in ultimate pointspread winners. No other handicapper in the nation will provide you historically proven statistical insight and in-depth rushing information to obtain relevant results (ATS).

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Check back throughout each week for additional articles, analysis, insight and ‘Fairway Forecasts’ along with the best sports betting information at   
Fairway Jay is a premier, proven performer and recognized leader as one of the nation’s elite NFL handicappers. For 8-straight seasons, Fairway Jay has provided consistent winning and profits with unprecedented results. His 2010 season was a record-breaking performance as he went 55-30 ATS (65%) with over 30-units of profit (1 and 2 unit scale). Fairway Jay also won the 2010 Wise Guys invitation only football contest along with top honors on his best bet selections; going 14-3-1. If you’re looking to build your bankroll and work with a proven performer and pro, join Fairway Jay and profit from his experience. For winning results and useful information you can bet on, click here and sign up for one of the nation’s top football services.

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