SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
Sports Memo Ad 0
SATURDAY CFB LIVE CHAT
w/ the Sportsemo Cappers
Thoughts and Analysis
FREE HALFTIME PICKS
Not a forum member?
CLICK TO SIGN UP FOR FREE
Sports Memo Ad 0
20* Prepaid Pack
Handicapper of your choice
Next Five 20* selections
Discounted Rate of only $99
Purchase online
Sports Memo Ad 1
WEEKLY FOOTBALL
Tuesday-Monday Coverage
College Football or NFL $99
CFB/NFL Combo $149
Great option for daily purchasers
CLICK HERE TO CASH IN
Sports Memo Ad 2
VIP FREE PLAY EMAIL
Enter email on front page
Free Play w/ analysis
See who's hot at Sportsmemo
Special unpublished offers
Register and account today!
Sports Memo Ad 3
HOCKEY PACKAGES
SAMMY P and IAN CAMERON
Actions starts October 8
October Package $299
Full Season Package $999
CLICK HERE TO PURCHASE

HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSTOOLSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERSTWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Handicapper Teddy Covers' Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview

01.30.2012     10:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The 2011 Super Bowl was not a good one for the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and offshore. They underestimated the groundswell of support for Green Bay and the Over. Money poured in on the favorite, driving the line up as high as -3 from a -1 opener. And money poured in on the Over; the closing total was as high as 55 at several key locations. When the Packers won 31-25, bettors cashed in on both the side and total. It was the worst Super Bowl result for the books since the infamous Super Bowl XIII, back in January 1979 when the Steelers beat the Raiders 35-31 in a game that bounced between -3.5 and -4.5 all week – a dreaded “middle” for the biggest game of the year.

The books will have a definite rooting interest in the Super Bowl again this year, because for the second consecutive season, the books underestimated the support for the hot team down the stretch. New England opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the New York Giants in many key locations, with one influential sportsbook – the Wynn – even hanging a -4 on the Patriots.

-3.5 or -4 was not the correct line, as determined by the betting markets. The books spent the first week of the two-week NFL hiatus between the championship games and the Super Bowl getting besieged with one bet on the Giants plus the points after the next. A -160/+140 moneyline split has been bet down as low as -130/+110. The -3.5’s were all gone within 24 hours of their arrival, and there has been enormous downward pressure on the line even at New England -3.

Numerous sportsbooks have dropped the line down to New England -2.5, hoping to balance their books with some Patriots money. The books that are more risk averse – not willing to risk a potentially disastrous result for the house if New England won the Super Bowl by exactly three points – have adjusted the vig on the Giants +3 so bettors have to lay -120 or -125 to support the more popular team plus the points. Talking with sportsbook directors around Vegas, it’s very clear that they expect to be rooting hard for the Patriots on Super Bowl Sunday.

In conversations with other sportsbettors over the past week, it’s easy to understand why so many wiseguys have gone to the betting window in support of Tom Coughlin’s Giants. And most of the analysis that the bettors are looking at has nothing to do with the one strong prevailing trend that supports New York this weekend – the trend of the lower seeded team dominating the Super Bowl ATS.

Over the past 15 years, the higher seeded team has covered a grand total of one Super Bowl pointspread, while the lower seeded team has covered 12, with a pair of pushes where neither side covered. That 12-1-2 ATS angle comes into play supporting the Giants this year; a No. 4 seed compared to the No. 1 Patriots. But it’s certainly not the primary reason bettors are flocking towards the G-men on Super Bowl Sunday.

Rather, bettors are pounding the Giants because they think the Giants are the better of these two teams. There’s a lot of anti-Patriots sentiment, starting with the Patriots dismal track record in big games; just 1-7 ATS in their last eight playoff games, dating back to 2006. New England faced only three teams all year that finished the season with winning records (Pittsburgh, the Giants and Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game). The Patriots went 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS in those games. Had Lee Evans been able to hang on to the football in the end zone in the final seconds against the Patriots last Sunday, that record would be 0-3 SU and ATS.

Bettors rank the Giants defense well ahead of New England’s stop unit. The Patriots defense finished near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every statistical category, including 31st out of 32 teams in both total defense and pass defense. Meanwhile, the Giants defense – riddled with injuries for a good portion of the season – is fully healthy right now. Key defensive contributors like Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Michael Boley and Kenny Phillips are all healthy and productive after missing time during the regular season.

Bettors also look at the road the Giants took to get here, ranking that well above New England’s weak schedule (only four teams in the NFL played a weaker slate than the Patriots). New York finished the regular season with the second ranked schedule. In their last dozen games, they’ve faced virtually every elite team in the league – these same Patriots along with the Eagles, Saints, Packers (twice), Cowboys (twice), Jets, Falcons and 49ers (twice).

Bettors certainly haven’t forgotten how the Giants went to Foxboro back in November and came away with the straight up win as 9-point underdogs against New England, despite playing without big play offensive weapons Ahmad Bradshaw or Hakeem Nicks. Nor have bettors forgotten their straight up playoff wins away from home against the Packers and 49ers in their last two games; two opponents that rank ahead of the Broncos-Ravens duo that the Patriots beat at home in most bettors’ power ratings.

There is no real revenge angle here to speak of; certainly not if we’re talking about the last meeting between these two teams four years ago. Of the 106 players currently on the two teams active rosters, only 22 of them suited up for Super Bowl XLII. But if you’re building a case for New England, this revenge angle certainly stands out. In the Belichick-Brady era, the Pats are 43-13 SU, 36-17-3 ATS when avenging a loss, including an 18-3 SU, 16-4-1 ATS mark when playoff off three or more wins in a row.  Clearly, this team makes good adjustments and uses their extra time to prepare wisely.

Another case can be made for the Patriots with some anti-Giants arguments. New York’s secondary was not an area of strength at any point this season; a major reason why this defense was ranked 23rd in ypg allowed and 22nd in scoring this year. If the Giants pass rush doesn’t reach Tom Brady on a consistent basis, one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the history of the NFL could have a field day. Let’s not forget that Brady is coming off a subpar showing against Baltimore, and he’s a quarterback with a long history of strong bounce-back efforts.

The Super Bowl winning Giants from four years ago also had a dominant running game behind Brandon Jacobs (5.0 yards per carry) and Derrick Ward (4.8 ypc), as the duo gained more than 1,600 rushing yards for the season and carried the team in the playoffs. This year, Jacobs averaged 3.8 yards per carry and his complement, Ahmad Bradshaw, averaged only 3.9. The duo combined for only 1,130 rushing yards for the entirety of the season. There’s much more pressure on Eli Manning in this game than there was the last time these two teams met for the title.

The Giants are also getting all kinds of credit for beating Green Bay and San Francisco on the road over the last two weeks. If you watched those games closely, you know that the Packers and 49ers both beat themselves as much if not more than the Giants beat them. Green Bay allowed that Hail Mary touchdown at the end of the half, a defensive play calling mistake from Dom Capers. Aaron Rodgers and the passing game looked completely out of sync following Rodgers’ three week lay-off, with a half dozen drops, numerous missed connections with wide open receivers and four ugly turnovers. Meanwhile, the Giants were well on their way to a loss at San Francisco before a pair of key punt return fumbles led to 10 fourth quarter and OT points, allowing the G-men to sneak away with the victory.

As with any Super Bowl, there’s a case to be made for both teams. So far, at least, bettors have been making a much stronger case for the Giants, leading to one-sided action and a potentially ugly result for the sportsbooks if the G-men pull off the minor upset.

Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVI New England Patriots New York Giants Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
PowerNFLCFBMLBNBA
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$99
Get top rated NFL 20*s from Andrew Lange, Rob Veno, and Erin Rynning for the discounted rate of $99. Each play is individually guaranteed to win or that handicapper's next top rated football play is on the house.

$39
ER owns a huge O/U Best Bet LONGTERM streak with a sizzling 47-21 69% mark. Sunday, ER has released his 20* NFL O/U Playmaker Game of the Month and he expects an easy winner. ER's 20* NFL O/U play is $39 and is guaranteed to win or his next football play is on the house.

$39
It's been a great 2014 for Andrew Lange and his clients with 57% winners across all sports. Sunday's big 20* comes from the totals market with a big Play of the Month selection. Watch and win for just $39; guaranteed to cash or Lange's next top rated play is on the house.

$39
Rob Veno has been an ABSOLUTE FORCE with his 20* BLUECHIP releases in 2014 posting a 57-30 65.5% mark stacking up +52.76 units of profit and for Sunday action, he's released his 20* NFL BLUECHIP Game Of The Month. Get on board with him for only $39; guaranteed to cash or his next selection is free.

$39
Sammy has been hot in all sports with his 20* Power Plays recording a sweet 35-22 61% streak. For Sunday, Sammy comes in big with his 20* NFL AFC Game of the Year. Cash in for just $39; a must win or SP's next football best bet is on the house.

$39
Teddy has delivered Over winners with his only NFL total picks in each of the last two weeks and he is primed to cash another easy right side Over winner this week. If you like wild, high scoring games, you will love this Big Ticket Shootout! This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

$39
Brent Crow has dominated the NFL over the past three seasons with a rock solid 57% winners. Get his 20* Superplay Report for Sunday for $39. It must win or his next football best bet selection is free.

$39
Ian Cameron and his clients enjoyed a DOMINATING Saturday in all sports racking up a sparkling 7-1 88% record for +6.85 units of profit! Ian cashed in with his 20* NFL Football release last week and he is ready to deliver another very strong, top rated winner in NFL action on Sunday night in an NFC clash between the Packers and Saints live on NBC with his 20* NFL SNF Main Event. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NFL report is free.

$35
Rob Veno has posted a remarkable +98.6 units since the start of 2013 and he's well on his way to back-back huge profit making seasons. For Sunday action he's in with a 15* NFL Bluechip NFC Best Bet Total which has triple threat criteria as a strong fundamental, situational and key number play. Rob's Top Rated selection is just $35 and must win or you receive his next NFL report at no additional cost.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
10.25 16:07
10.25 15:34
10.25 14:14
10.25 13:34
10.25 13:09

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     10.22.2014 1:16 PM
Ted Sevransky     10.20.2014 11:26 AM
Ted Sevransky     10.15.2014 1:09 PM
Ted Sevransky     10.13.2014 12:14 PM
Ted Sevransky     10.06.2014 12:25 PM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 26, 2014 02:28 AM.