SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
All Available Packages
NOTICE: If you can not view the forum, you may need to log out of SportsMemo.com and log back in to recreate your forum session.
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Holiday Bowl Betting Preview: Wisconsin Badgers vs. USC Trojans

12.28.2015     10:57 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Holiday Bowl - San Diego, CA 
Wisconsin vs. USC 
Wednesday, December 30, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN 
CRIS Opener:
USC -3 O/U 51 
CRIS Current: USC -3 O/U 50 
Recommendation: USC

Wisconsin's strength of schedule, or lack thereof, is an obvious starting point with this handicap. The Badgers didn't play Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, or Indiana this season. Instead they drew Iowa and Northwestern at home (lost both games) and got manhandled against Alabama in Week 1. Against its five opponents that reached the postseason (two of which, Minnesota and Nebraska, went 5-7 in the regular season), Wisconsin averaged only 319 ypg. You can make a strong argument that UW's 5.29 ypp vs. 4.39 ypp allowed is in fact extremely weak based on the level of competition.

USC meanwhile went through a meatgrinder of a slate (No. 3 SOS Sagarin) and managed to win eight games despite losing its head coach midseason. But just because you play a tougher schedule than your opponent doesn't always make you the better team. When asked to step up in class, the Trojans didn't always fare well. The last three games of the season in particular were alarming as the Trojans were crushed at Oregon 48-28, outgained 5.56-4.82 by UCLA but benefited from a +3 turnover margin, and then dominated from start to finish in the PAC-12 Championship against Stanford, 41-22.

Fundamentally, however, USC should have advantages on both sides of the football. The defensive numbers don't look great but eight games involved opponents that finished the season averaging 6 ypp or more. Wisconsin didn't face a single team that hit that mark. The best offense the Badgers faced all season was Alabama and the Crimson Tide rolled up 502 yards on 7.61 ypp. Point being that while UW's defensive numbers look strong there probably isn't much of any gap between these two squads and USC's strength was stopping the run (3.98 ypc allowed) which matches up well against a Wisconsin squad that isn't much of a threat through the air. In fact, you couldn't ask for a better opponent to just sit back, play base defense, and keep everything in front of you. Wisconsin recorded only three plays all season of over 50 or more yards. USC's problem over the past few seasons has been against speed/spread teams like Oregon or physical run/play action teams like Stanford. The Badgers are obviously neither.

There's more to this and any bowl handicap than just strength of schedule, but I think when we look at each team's results it's clear that not only did USC compete against better competition but they showed more capable. USC's ability to run the football and stop the run grade out as better than Wisky's and after being embarrassed in the PAC-12 title game I look for a far better effort and enough of one to cover the short number.

Tags: College Football Wisconsin Bagders Big Ten USC Trojans PAC-12 Andrew Lange




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Andrew Lange Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
Close out Week 13 STRONG with Erin Rynning's 10* Game of the Week for Sunday. ER's been one of Sportsmemo's top NFL producers this year with 61% winners and over +12 units of profit. Get on board for $29. It must cash or his next top rated play is free of charge.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
12.04 07:58
12.01 12:42
11.30 13:41
11.30 11:59
11.30 06:11

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Andrew Lange     11.29.2016 7:33 AM
Andrew Lange     11.16.2016 10:40 AM
Andrew Lange     11.09.2016 8:48 AM
Andrew Lange     11.08.2016 9:30 AM
Andrew Lange     11.02.2016 9:31 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Andrew Lange

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Dec 04, 2016 04:30 PM.