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Isolating College Football pointspread winners using running game success

11.11.2011     07:40 AM         Printer Friendly

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We cashed our 20* College Football Game of the Year winner last Saturday when Virginia (-2.5) steamrolled Maryland 31-13 with 220 rushing yards and 527 total yards offense. The Cavaliers dominance at the point of attack while outrushing Maryland by at least a 2-to-1 margin played out perfectly in Virginia’s victory. 
  
If you’ve been following along the past few months and reading my articles, you’re aware that I’ve discussed and reviewed running game success in college football. If you’re able to handicap a game and determine that one team will have a significant advantage at the point of attack and outrush their opponent by margin, you’re well on your way to producing more profit and building your bankroll. Teams that outrush their opponent by at least a 2-to-1 margin have won just over 78% ATS this season (sample size over 230 games). This is no fluke, as last season produced very similar overall rushing results, with a 74% ATS win rate four our parameters (sample size nearly 300 games).

In MAC play this week, we delivered our third straight Tuesday night college football winner when Northern Illinois steamrolled Bowling Green 45-14 thanks to a dominating Huskies running game that outrushed the Falcons 285-79 while piling up over 620 yards offense. The Huskies ran the ball 52 times to just 17 for the Falcons. The schedule and situation may not have looked as favorable for NIU, but this fundamental match-up stuck out like a sore thumb at the point of attack. The Huskies held a +3.0 net rushing differential over the Falcons on paper. Northern Illinois entered the game running for 246 ypg at 5.9 yards per rush while allowing 202 rushing ypg at 4.3 ypr (net differential +1.6). Bowling Green entered with 129 rushing ypg at 3.6 ypr while allowing 191 rushing ypg at 5.0 ypr (net differential -1.4). A +3.0 net rushing differential is significant in a college football game, and along with a surprisingly downward move in the betting line, this became an easy fundamental play for Fairway’s Faithful Followers in victory.

This week’s match-ups show some solid rushing advantages projected for a number of teams, and I’ve listed some early Saturday games below. It’s not as simple as it seems to forecast this fundamental advantage at the point of attack and have it play out to produce profit, but if you’re able to succeed, you’re well on your way to more ATS winners. Keep in mind that the pointspread is the equalizer and in the case of Vanderbilt being a two-touchdown favorite (and rising), we see an adjustment of nearly three touchdowns from what would have been an early season line.

Vanderbilt over Kentucky 
Virginia over Duke 
Eastern Michigan over Buffalo


Need I remind you that if you don’t have the time or energy to research this type of information, or the ability to proficiently forecast consistent pointspread winners, then enlist the services of a proven pro and profit from my experience.

Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in football handicapping and one of the industries insightful point spread prognosticators when analyzing rushing statistics. He’s been a premier, proven performer and is at his best as the season progresses with more stats and data to digest. His 2010 NFL season was a record-breaking performance as he went 55-30 ATS (65%) with over +30-units of profit (1 and 2 unit scale) and his last 2+ years of college and pro football results have produced plenty of overall profit. Fairway Jay has delivered some solid results on his top ‘Big Drive’ plays including last week’s College Football Game of the Year winner. Fairway Jay’s top rated football plays have gone 16-9 (64%) over the past month. Fairway Jay won the 2010 Wise Guys invitation only football contest along with top honors on his best bet selections; going 14-3-1. If you’re looking for a proven performer that provides insight and info you can bet on, then join Fairway Jay and profit from his experience.

Tags: College Football __




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