Las Vegas Classic
Colorado vs. Indiana -2.5
Recommendation: Indiana
I've taken a wait and see approach with Indiana because of its lopsided schedule and faulty seasonal stats. Yesterday, with a chance to step up in class somewhat against Northern Iowa, the Hoosiers fell flat with a 67-61 loss. Tonight however, I think they can break into the win column against a decent opponent. Colorado plays absolutely no defense; one of only five power conference teams that allow more than a point per possession. And when you get the Buffs on the road, the defense gets even worse. Last season, opposing teams averaged just under 80 ppg when the Buffs played outside of Boulder. More of the same this year with all four road/neutral opponents scoring 82+. The strategy of trying to outscore your opponent can work at home, but on the road, in a competitive contest like the line suggests tonight, you have to be able to make stops. Indiana is far from a defensive juggernaut but much more capable of making that key defensive stand tonight that propels them to victory. I'll take the Hoosiers to break through with a nice win before Big ten play starts.
