St Peter’s +3.5 at Siena O/U 127.5
Recommendation: St. Peter’s
I take very different approaches to betting the NBA in comparison to college hoops. My NBA handicapping process is all about “spots”; finding situations where a team is likely to step up or come out flat. My approach to college hoops is much less "spot” related, and much more “value” related.
With over 250 teams on the betting boards, the markets are inevitably going to make mistakes, underpricing some while overpricing others. And, unlike the financial markets or the professional sports markets, it takes a long time for a mispriced team to be correctly adjusted – sports betting is not a particularly efficient marketplace.
Examples of high profile mispriced teams in recent weeks include Michigan State (2-9 ATS L11), George Mason (13-0 ATS L13), UNLV (1-7 ATS L8) and Texas (8-2 ATS L10). The prevailing thought process is simply to repeatedly support or fade these mispriced teams again and again until the betting markets catch up.
Siena has been a mispriced team all year. The Saints spent the last half decade as the powerhouse of the MAAC, a SU and ATS juggernaut for extended stretches. This year, after losing their head coach, suffering enormous graduation losses and dealing with a series of key injuries, the Saints are 10-15 SU right now, a far cry from the 27-win team they’ve been in each of the last two years.
Against the spread, Siena has been particularly inept in the role of a favorite. The Saints have been chalk on ten different occasions this season. They are 0-10 ATS in those ballgames. Siena’s home court has not been strong – they’ve cashed only two tickets in ten previous lined games on this floor. St. Peter’s beat this team comfortably last month, and I expect the veteran Peacocks (three senior starters, seven SU wins away from home this year) to cash as dogs in Albany tonight.