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MLB Betting Notes: Peavy's struggles tied to dip in velocity

07.19.2011     02:45 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Chicago (Peavy) -110 at Kansas City (Duffy) O/U 8.5

Velocity of lack thereof seems to be the best way to handicap Chicago's Jake Peavy these days. Based on his FanGraphs chart, when Peavy's fastball is above 90 MPH, he has success, when it isn't he struggles. Notice the spike in velocity came in his relief appearance back on June 25 against Washington – 4 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 0 BBs. Since then however, he's allowed 14 earned runs over his last 16.1 innings with a mediocre 10-6 K-to-BB ratio. His last start back on July 10, he was pounded for 10 hits and five earned runs against light hitting Minnesota (his lowest fastball MPH average to date). Peavy was honest that he was less than 100% leading up to the All-Star break. The White Sox pushed back his start until tonight, giving the veteran right-hander eight full days of rest. Assuming his struggles are as a result of fatigue rather than injury, we would expect a good showing tonight in Kansas City though perhaps a wait-and-see approach in regards to his velocity is the best course of action.

“I felt the same in all of them — my arm was about 70 percent … maybe,” Peavy said on Friday. “When you’re arm’s like that, not only your fastball but breaking stuff isn’t sharp, nothing’s effective … [the extended relief appearance] was totally my call and I was excited to do it, but I needed to understand my body was taxed. I won us a couple of games, but lost us a couple after that.”

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Jake Peavy Kansas City Royals Danny Duffy

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