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MLB Betting Stock Watch: Latos looks to be in fine form

05.27.2011     07:16 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Buy Mat Latos – Latos burst on the scene last year after starting 10 games for the Padres in 2009. The power right-hander was simply dominating much of the campaign with a 2.92 ERA including an amazing 10-1 stretch. His peripheral numbers were strong as well with 189 strikeouts to just 50 walks in 185 innings of work.

The workload however was a real issue and the Padres skipped his turn a few times in order to preserve his arm. But in the heat of a pennant race, the Padres needed high leverage innings from their ace and unfortunately, he faded down the stretch (1-5, 5.65 ERA in September and October). Questions lingered moving forward to 2011 on how Latos would respond to the hefty workload. Once spring training hit, it was clear he wasn’t responding well. Latos finally admitted he was having soreness in his shoulder and the Padres were forced to place him on disabled list. He returned in mid-April, but his 2010 form was still missing. His velocity was down, and the overall crispness of his stuff was lacking. By May ninth his ERA stood at a whopping 4.86.

Latos though managed to find his groove mechanically on May 15th with a strong outing in Colorado against the Rockies.  He followed that up with a decent showing against Seattle and then really showed promise last time out against St. Louis, consistently hitting 95-96 MPH on the radar gun with seven strikeouts to no walks. It appears all is right with the big right-hander and given the Padres’ struggles, I would expect more than a few juicy prices on his upcoming starts.  

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Mat Latos Erin Rynning

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Visitor Comments:

05/27/2011 5:55 PM
I'm not buying. His "decent" showing against Seattle?!? 4 runs in six innings including a moon shot from Olivo is BAD not decent. He was getting slapped in the 1st inning but guys like Peguero and Ryan. The "strong" start vs COL was less than impressive with him getting lucky in the 1st inning. Latos has consistently run into trouble early on in games and I question his toughness. Dude seems to fold when things are going wrong. I need a few more strong starts before I buy into this guy.

05/27/2011 7:17 PM
He has had issues in the early innings but you look at his peripherals and they still hold up: less than a hit per inning, right at a strikeout per inning. As ER mentioned, he went through some arm soreness early hence the home run ball being a problem. I think he got a little cocky with last year's numbers and the Petco syndrome of being able to challenge guys up in zone and get away with it. His velocity was up last game which is a good sign. Gotta pounce on these guys BEFORE they peak I think is what ER is saying. He rolls off three of four more strong starts and now all of a sudden you are laying -140+ which is a tough sell with San Diego. A fine line...less that stellar stuff better fine form too rich. Same thing with the two Seattle studs. Betting market can lag at times which is why you have to get in while there is still cake.

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