Sell Josh Tomlin – No question, Tomlin has been crucial for the Indians early this season with a 6-1 record and gaudy 2.41 ERA. Life is good for the Tribe and Tomlin in particular. But if you follow these pages, you know that I like to sell high and this certainly seems like the high water mark for Tomlin. A close examination of the numbers reveals he is long overdue for a regression.
Tomlin is already 26-years-old and working in just his second full season in the bigs. He was decent for the Indians last season in 12 starts with a 4.56 ERA but I noticed that his velocity is actually slightly down from last year. Couple that with a beyond remarkable .175 BAbip and only 30 punch outs in nearly 60 innings of work and it is easy to predict things will start to even out. In addition, he’s stranded base runners at over an 85% clip. Everything has gone right for Tomlin this season, but I expect his ERA to return to the 4.50 range moving forward.
