Tampa Bay (Price) -110 at Texas (Holland) O/U 8.5 
Recommendation: Over

I know that Tampa’s David Price has been nothing short of brilliant since the All-Star break, sporting a 5-0 record and a 1.23 ERA in his last eight starts.  But his track record against the Rangers leaves much to be desired, with just a single victory to go along with his 5.52 ERA in seven regular season starts against them.  His track record at the Ballpark in Arlington is even worse, with a 9.24 ERA; lasting only 12.2 innings in three previous starts on this field.  And those numbers don’t even include his 0-3 mark against Texas in the 2010 and 2011 playoffs!

Texas starter Derek Holland has a pretty miserable track record of his own against this Rays lineup.  Tampa scored five runs against him in his lone start against them this year.  The Rays pounded him for nine runs in 12.1 innings of work in two regular season starts against them last year.  It was a similar story in 2010: one start, 4.1 innings of work, five runs allowed.  It’s certainly not like Holland is in good form right now, with a 5.43 ERA at home this year, while allowing five runs or more four times in his last seven trips to the hill. 

Both of these lineups are capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves.  The Rangers have scored five runs or more in seven of their last eight contests; pounding out 44 runs in their last five games alone.  And once the Rays leave pitcher friendly Tampa, their offense has been on fire, hammering a solid Angels pitching staff for 44 runs (at least seven in every game) on their last road trip…a trip that started with 23 runs in three games at Minnesota.  Expect fireworks!