LA Dodgers (Kershaw) -115 at Arizona (Collmenter) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Los Angeles
Oddsmakers and the betting markets have spent the better part of the last month downgrading the Los Angeles Dodgers because of their much publicized offensive drought. The worst of it saw LA score 15 runs in 12 games en route to a 1-11 stretch. But since the calendar flipped to July, we've seen a tad more offense with 21 runs their last five games (4-1). Despite all that has happened, and with San Francisco currently struggling on the East Coast, the Dodgers head into today with a 1.5 game lead in the National League West. They've have a chance to extend that lead with ace Clayton Kershaw slated to take the hill. Kershaw's seasonal numbers are rock solid (2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and he not only has a strong history against Arizona (1.92 ERA in 11 starts) but a proven track record at Chase Field (2.59 ERA, 5 starts). To see him at the cheap of a price you'd think he was matched up against the 2011 version of Ian Kennedy. Instead, he faces Josh Collmenter, who was sent to the bullpen after a ton of early season struggles. He's since pitched pretty well out of the bullpen – he's ideal role – and been thrown back into the rotation because of injuries to Joe Saunders and Daniel Hudson. The Dodgers saw Collmenter three times last season as well as a relief appearance back in May – familiarity a big key with his funky motion. There is a massive discrepancy of talent and ability on the mound and I'll gladly support the former Cy Young winner at the discounted price.