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MLB Gambling Update: Baltimore Orioles enjoy a big heaping plate of regression

05.22.2017     07:12 AM     Printer Friendly


Regression, karma, laws of averages...whatever you want to call it, the Baltimore Orioles have returned to the Earth's atmosphere following their fraudulent 22-10 start. On May 10, we posted some of Baltimore's numbers including their 8-1 record in 1-run games. Since then, they've lost seven of 10 and six of those losses came by, you guessed it, one run. 

MLB Handicapping: Stats show the Baltimore Orioles to be really freaking lucky

05.10.2017     08:36 AM     View Original Blog
The Baltimore Orioles (+12.4 units) are back to defying all sorts of logic with an MLB-best 22-10 record (including six straight wins) despite a very mediocre statistical profile. The Orioles' Pythagorean W-L record is 18-14 and they are 5-1 in extra inning games and 8-1 in 1-run games. The "close game" record is even more fortunate considering Zach Britton, one of the best closers in the league, has only made two appearances since April 14 due to injury. Regression is on its way but don't expect to be catching a bunch of big underdog prices when it does. Despite the stellar record, Baltimore's average moneyline price is around -102 thanks to a bunch of average-to-good starters. The Orioles have been favored by -140 or more only five times. To compare, the Cleveland Indians, who boast a far more respected rotation, have been -140 or more 19 times.

Baltimore Stats (MLB rank)
Batting Avg. .252 (14th)
On-Base Pct. .311 (22nd)
Slugging Pct. .409 (16th)
wRC+ 96 (16th)
ERA 3.85 (10th)
FIP 4.33 (22nd)
xFIP 4.61 (25th)


Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles

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